Trump has squelched public dissent, but that won't save him from business retrenchments that raise costs, kill jobs, and make him and his party unpopular.
I (much like… everyone?) radically underestimated how much the MAGA camp actually believed their economic policies vs wanted to focus on culture war bullshit. I figured that Trump would spend more time, like, pressuring Disney into making racist movies again versus evaporating everyone’s 401ks.
Part of the problem is the lack of clarity on the objectives, even amongst the tariff enthusiasts in Trump's camp. Is it reciprocity (which seems to be Bessent's point of view)? Or is it revenue enhancement (the CPA view), or is it to protect strategic industries as part of a national development policy?
The other day, for example, Vietnam offered to eliminate all of its tariffs to gain exemption from Trumo's tariffs. But if the tariffs are eliminated, how do you encourage re-shoring?
If you want a weaker dollar to reduce the trade imbalances, then doesn't that risk a potential diminution of dollar hegemony, as it gives less chance to net save in USD?
Then there's the broader question of whether we should use the stockmarket as the best barometer of America's economic welk-beinf, considering how much it embodies an economic model/status quo that Trump is seeking to eliminate?
And what's the main economic threat? If the problem is losing the industrial base to China or other parts of Asia, then why antagonise Europe (as Tom Friedman notes today in the NY Times)
If you don't get the diagnosis correct, then the wrong medicine can kill the patient. From the wreckage of Liberation Day, something useful might be built. But first it is necessary to recognize that it is indeed a wreck with a simplistic cure that might kill the patient.
Yes, that's the part that puzzles (infuriates?) me the most. Two of the most often-claimed justifications are 1) Bringing back US manufacturing, and 2) Leverage to extract reductions in tariffs on US exports. They cannot accomplish both.
"There is a path by which the Trump Administration can reconfigure the global trading and financial systems to America’s benefit, but it is narrow, and will require careful planning, precise execution, and attention to steps to minimize adverse consequences."
If there is some "grand scheme" behind tariff policy, it sure isn't clear to me, and the fact that the messaging has been so haphazard and contradictory tells me that it's either not being coordinated consistently internally, or (more likely) there really isn't much strategy either.
The key phrase in your response is "it is narrow, and will require careful planning, precise execution, and attention to steps to minimize adverse consequences."
What we're seeing playing out is the opposite of this. It's like giving an AK-47 to a chimpanzee.
In this current situation, I comfort myself with the surety that there are lots of office-holding Republicans sleeping very uneasily right now. Maybe any recession will faded by November 2026--they'd better hope so.
I (much like… everyone?) radically underestimated how much the MAGA camp actually believed their economic policies vs wanted to focus on culture war bullshit. I figured that Trump would spend more time, like, pressuring Disney into making racist movies again versus evaporating everyone’s 401ks.
Part of the problem is the lack of clarity on the objectives, even amongst the tariff enthusiasts in Trump's camp. Is it reciprocity (which seems to be Bessent's point of view)? Or is it revenue enhancement (the CPA view), or is it to protect strategic industries as part of a national development policy?
The other day, for example, Vietnam offered to eliminate all of its tariffs to gain exemption from Trumo's tariffs. But if the tariffs are eliminated, how do you encourage re-shoring?
If you want a weaker dollar to reduce the trade imbalances, then doesn't that risk a potential diminution of dollar hegemony, as it gives less chance to net save in USD?
Then there's the broader question of whether we should use the stockmarket as the best barometer of America's economic welk-beinf, considering how much it embodies an economic model/status quo that Trump is seeking to eliminate?
And what's the main economic threat? If the problem is losing the industrial base to China or other parts of Asia, then why antagonise Europe (as Tom Friedman notes today in the NY Times)
If you don't get the diagnosis correct, then the wrong medicine can kill the patient. From the wreckage of Liberation Day, something useful might be built. But first it is necessary to recognize that it is indeed a wreck with a simplistic cure that might kill the patient.
Yes, that's the part that puzzles (infuriates?) me the most. Two of the most often-claimed justifications are 1) Bringing back US manufacturing, and 2) Leverage to extract reductions in tariffs on US exports. They cannot accomplish both.
There are also other theories, including that it's part of a strategy to drive down the cost of servicing US debt. https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/research/638199_A_Users_Guide_to_Restructuring_the_Global_Trading_System.pdf
"There is a path by which the Trump Administration can reconfigure the global trading and financial systems to America’s benefit, but it is narrow, and will require careful planning, precise execution, and attention to steps to minimize adverse consequences."
If there is some "grand scheme" behind tariff policy, it sure isn't clear to me, and the fact that the messaging has been so haphazard and contradictory tells me that it's either not being coordinated consistently internally, or (more likely) there really isn't much strategy either.
The key phrase in your response is "it is narrow, and will require careful planning, precise execution, and attention to steps to minimize adverse consequences."
What we're seeing playing out is the opposite of this. It's like giving an AK-47 to a chimpanzee.
The bumper sticker should read, Trump Takes America for a Ride.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-07/oil-boss-says-trump-administration-better-have-a-plan-amid-rout?sref=sUnNGGHb
In this current situation, I comfort myself with the surety that there are lots of office-holding Republicans sleeping very uneasily right now. Maybe any recession will faded by November 2026--they'd better hope so.
Excellent “Watchmen” reference- “I’m not in here with you, you’re in here with me”