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I think your analysis is right, but I also think you may be giving Republican congresspeople too much credit. I think there is a decent chance the crazies wait them out until the government shuts down.

At that point, without a speaker, I don't know how anyone brings a bill to vote to reopen.

But there's a chance that not all of the Republican caucus is completely terrified of getting crosswise with their base, but I wouldn't bet on it.

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