Seriously, are you that delusional to suggest that Biden can in 11 months change the direction of the supply chain and gather in inflation, hoping that will offset the negative polling of his first year. If you have not noticed, in the last 24 hours the once compliant media is starting to question Biden and Harris ability to be re-elected . My guess is the democratic powers in DC are in free fall over the realization that unless they jettison them and find a fresh face to run in 2024, they will also loose the Whitehouse.
Agreed..Biden is not Reagan and he has lost the trust of many voters..very doubtful he will survive three more years, not from further mental loss, which is occurring, but from his party.
" lots of stuff can change in three years" Agreed, my position it will be Biden , unlike President Wilson who's stroke greatly reduced his capacity to govern his administration was run by his wife and doctor. Biden's capacity to govern will be exposed and magnified by the press and social media.. I seriously doubt he will still be president by 2024.
Interesting read. I think Biden should absolutely work to improve the situation on the margins. By all means, use your legal authority to make progress where you can. There are no options available to pull a Xi or Putin and force the markets to react. If we start from the premise that the majority of moves available to either political party excludes anything that alienates the stakeholders (unions for Dems, Trumpy anti "other" for Reps, etc.) there is really nothing else he can do. Throwing money at ports will not solve horrifically inefficient union contracts in LA/Long Beach ports. If Biden can help get the unions to allow any level of modern automation there, the market will pay for it all, no gov't money needed. That will happen the same day Congressional Republicans having a reasonable immigration policy breakthrough.
My question for Josh...with the political power in both parties located at the extremes, where and when do you see a breakthrough to middle of the road solutions? The incentive structures for all politicians right now seem to demand no compromise on anything...at all...ever...
2% would be a lot! There are factors in sight that should cause inflation to ease somewhat even if Biden did nothing, and the political difference between 5% and 3% inflation by November would be enormous (as would the difference between 7% and 5% or whatever baseline you choose). That said, I think a 2% effect is too aggressive to expect, and you're right that there are new risks from China.
In tomorrow's issue (and in the podcast episode associated with tomorrow's issue) I'll have some thoughts about how even policies that move a little could affect public opinion quite materially. It relates to one of my pollster guest's cases about how a small-ball cost-of-living issue -- Virginia's grocery tax -- helped Glenn Youngkin win the Virginia governor's race.
It’s not just politically that changes at the margin matter. Inflation two points lower (or one point lower) is better (so long as you don’t go below the target).
Seriously, are you that delusional to suggest that Biden can in 11 months change the direction of the supply chain and gather in inflation, hoping that will offset the negative polling of his first year. If you have not noticed, in the last 24 hours the once compliant media is starting to question Biden and Harris ability to be re-elected . My guess is the democratic powers in DC are in free fall over the realization that unless they jettison them and find a fresh face to run in 2024, they will also loose the Whitehouse.
Agreed..Biden is not Reagan and he has lost the trust of many voters..very doubtful he will survive three more years, not from further mental loss, which is occurring, but from his party.
I’m.not judging an administration, I’m judging Biden as a leader…
" lots of stuff can change in three years" Agreed, my position it will be Biden , unlike President Wilson who's stroke greatly reduced his capacity to govern his administration was run by his wife and doctor. Biden's capacity to govern will be exposed and magnified by the press and social media.. I seriously doubt he will still be president by 2024.
Josh, the labor shortage is good for wages and other compensation like bonuses and benefits, no?
Best we leave this thread, I’ll return in 12 months and comment! Stay safe!
Interesting read. I think Biden should absolutely work to improve the situation on the margins. By all means, use your legal authority to make progress where you can. There are no options available to pull a Xi or Putin and force the markets to react. If we start from the premise that the majority of moves available to either political party excludes anything that alienates the stakeholders (unions for Dems, Trumpy anti "other" for Reps, etc.) there is really nothing else he can do. Throwing money at ports will not solve horrifically inefficient union contracts in LA/Long Beach ports. If Biden can help get the unions to allow any level of modern automation there, the market will pay for it all, no gov't money needed. That will happen the same day Congressional Republicans having a reasonable immigration policy breakthrough.
My question for Josh...with the political power in both parties located at the extremes, where and when do you see a breakthrough to middle of the road solutions? The incentive structures for all politicians right now seem to demand no compromise on anything...at all...ever...
This really is a question because I'm new to Josh's column.
Why does the President doing the right thing also have to be wrapped in being good politically?
I'm sure there is a better way to ask that question that does not "feel" like I'm being critical.
But if it's good for the country I believe the Moderates among us will see it and vote accordingly.
In my 10-35-5-5-35-10 View of the political spectrum we sort of decide things anyway.
2% would be a lot! There are factors in sight that should cause inflation to ease somewhat even if Biden did nothing, and the political difference between 5% and 3% inflation by November would be enormous (as would the difference between 7% and 5% or whatever baseline you choose). That said, I think a 2% effect is too aggressive to expect, and you're right that there are new risks from China.
In tomorrow's issue (and in the podcast episode associated with tomorrow's issue) I'll have some thoughts about how even policies that move a little could affect public opinion quite materially. It relates to one of my pollster guest's cases about how a small-ball cost-of-living issue -- Virginia's grocery tax -- helped Glenn Youngkin win the Virginia governor's race.
It’s not just politically that changes at the margin matter. Inflation two points lower (or one point lower) is better (so long as you don’t go below the target).
I think they are good spits, James.