Apr 21, 2023·edited Apr 21, 2023Liked by Josh Barro
I think your point about Substack Notes is strong - a lot of the reason people follow commentators on twitter is to see the conversation you reference. If anything, I think getting the crowd that's moved to mastodon on mastodon is a good thing; the 'interest' accounts I followed there are good on their own, and mostly unrelated to and disconnected from the commentariat-and-journo crowd I'm also interested in reading.
It's really funny to me that everything Elon has done has sorta forced his main *ad* audiences off twitter, to the benefit of his fanbase, and also improved conditions on the new platforms for the various diaspora communities. Of course this is disastrous for Twitter's business prospects, which even more underscores the way Elon and a lot of elites misunderstand everything about the communities that get built around (groups of) elites by 'normies'
Josh, can you please explain what the advantages are of being on Substack Notes vs. just following discussions here on your website (and on serioustrouble.show, of course)? I've never been on or had any interest in Twitter <gasp!>, so I can't compare Substack Notes to it, or for that matter, to anything else. Apologies, I'm not REALLY a Luddite...
Could insulin be supplied for free like methadone? Or is it too important as a political football? Do changing demographics make this a problem that only becomes more critical over time, no matter what Biden does today?
When the Medicare-supplied home health aide comes to visit my elderly father, they generally ask to see "the medications". My parents offer up a fairly sizeable basket they keep on the kitchen counter. Some of them, my father knows their purpose. I like to think those are the important ones. In the morning, he has a little ritual where he lays some pills out on a napkin - not the same ones every day, and perhaps depending on how his tummy feels, or his mental state - and chooses some to take.
I expect the vast unused portion of seniors' medicine cabinets* could pay for some insulin.
*And their band-aid collection! I had a job working for a company that moved seniors.** Packed them up, as judiciously as possibly ("you probably will not use your paella pan at the senior living apartment - well, okay, if you really want it"), made whatever new purchases were required; got someone in to nail the usually-new TV to the wall and hook everything up; and unpacked and set everything up (with a TV-like reveal!) at their "next step" as the name of the company went. A constant was a vast cornucopia of band-aids and bandages of all manner and sizes as though it were a M*A*S*H unit. If you have elderly parents, don't buy band-aids. Just pilfer from their collection.
**Our clients were often in some sense, the kids, not the parents. After a couple years of this, I concluded: leave them in their home if at all possible. Pay for care there. Or let the chips fall where they may. The fact that you as their kid are making this decision means their stay at the new place will be short, too short to bother with all this upheaval. This is distinct from seniors young enough and healthy enough to make their own decisions.
Always enjoy your work! I thought your analogy comparing Twitter to Stack to be insightful. One passage made me scratch my head a bit - you mentioned "Since Substack Notes is a place I can talk to Matt Yglesias and Ben Dreyfuss and Noah Smith....", but don't you really mean "...a place where I can talk PUBLICLY to Matt..." Presumably, you could DM them, or perhaps even text them. I think the importance to many is the public discussion.
The problem is swing voters tend to punish the party in the White House for any and all economic problems. Whether this has anything to do with anything the President does or not. One of the reasons it was a surprise Democrats did better than expected in the midterms was their was real economic headwinds in the form of inflation. But those headwinds were still there and likely at least partially a factor of why GOP was still able to eek out a House majority.
The point being a debt ceiling breach and subsequent economic catastrophe would almost certainly work to the benefit of whoever the GOP nominates for President. It creates a terrible disincentive for the GOP to actually work on a debt ceiling increase or negotiate in good faith.
If I had to bet, I think Josh lays out a pretty good scenario of what will likely happen with the debt ceiling negotiations (Think the "punt the football" to December, 2023 seems very plausible to me), but it really needs to be recognized the "out of power" party has a lot of reasons to essentially sabotage the American economy before an upcoming election.
Looking forward to the cocktail episode; I enjoyed the last one and subscribed to Suderman's substack after listening. My question is about milk-washing liquor and clarified milk punch drinks. Sounds gross but I've seen videos of people doing it and it seems like a fun project, but is it worth trying? If so, what's a good cocktail to start with?
I think your point about Substack Notes is strong - a lot of the reason people follow commentators on twitter is to see the conversation you reference. If anything, I think getting the crowd that's moved to mastodon on mastodon is a good thing; the 'interest' accounts I followed there are good on their own, and mostly unrelated to and disconnected from the commentariat-and-journo crowd I'm also interested in reading.
It's really funny to me that everything Elon has done has sorta forced his main *ad* audiences off twitter, to the benefit of his fanbase, and also improved conditions on the new platforms for the various diaspora communities. Of course this is disastrous for Twitter's business prospects, which even more underscores the way Elon and a lot of elites misunderstand everything about the communities that get built around (groups of) elites by 'normies'
Josh, can you please explain what the advantages are of being on Substack Notes vs. just following discussions here on your website (and on serioustrouble.show, of course)? I've never been on or had any interest in Twitter <gasp!>, so I can't compare Substack Notes to it, or for that matter, to anything else. Apologies, I'm not REALLY a Luddite...
Could insulin be supplied for free like methadone? Or is it too important as a political football? Do changing demographics make this a problem that only becomes more critical over time, no matter what Biden does today?
When the Medicare-supplied home health aide comes to visit my elderly father, they generally ask to see "the medications". My parents offer up a fairly sizeable basket they keep on the kitchen counter. Some of them, my father knows their purpose. I like to think those are the important ones. In the morning, he has a little ritual where he lays some pills out on a napkin - not the same ones every day, and perhaps depending on how his tummy feels, or his mental state - and chooses some to take.
I expect the vast unused portion of seniors' medicine cabinets* could pay for some insulin.
*And their band-aid collection! I had a job working for a company that moved seniors.** Packed them up, as judiciously as possibly ("you probably will not use your paella pan at the senior living apartment - well, okay, if you really want it"), made whatever new purchases were required; got someone in to nail the usually-new TV to the wall and hook everything up; and unpacked and set everything up (with a TV-like reveal!) at their "next step" as the name of the company went. A constant was a vast cornucopia of band-aids and bandages of all manner and sizes as though it were a M*A*S*H unit. If you have elderly parents, don't buy band-aids. Just pilfer from their collection.
**Our clients were often in some sense, the kids, not the parents. After a couple years of this, I concluded: leave them in their home if at all possible. Pay for care there. Or let the chips fall where they may. The fact that you as their kid are making this decision means their stay at the new place will be short, too short to bother with all this upheaval. This is distinct from seniors young enough and healthy enough to make their own decisions.
Always enjoy your work! I thought your analogy comparing Twitter to Stack to be insightful. One passage made me scratch my head a bit - you mentioned "Since Substack Notes is a place I can talk to Matt Yglesias and Ben Dreyfuss and Noah Smith....", but don't you really mean "...a place where I can talk PUBLICLY to Matt..." Presumably, you could DM them, or perhaps even text them. I think the importance to many is the public discussion.
Who losses the most if a debt increase is not approved in time?
Feels like the republicans .... at least in public opinion.
They want to reduce increased spending.
Not sure their are any real budget reductions in their.
It seems reduced increases are Washington-speak for cutting spending.
Seems like democrats wouldn't suffer much political pain.
There just aren't enough moderates to make them pay a price.
The problem is swing voters tend to punish the party in the White House for any and all economic problems. Whether this has anything to do with anything the President does or not. One of the reasons it was a surprise Democrats did better than expected in the midterms was their was real economic headwinds in the form of inflation. But those headwinds were still there and likely at least partially a factor of why GOP was still able to eek out a House majority.
The point being a debt ceiling breach and subsequent economic catastrophe would almost certainly work to the benefit of whoever the GOP nominates for President. It creates a terrible disincentive for the GOP to actually work on a debt ceiling increase or negotiate in good faith.
If I had to bet, I think Josh lays out a pretty good scenario of what will likely happen with the debt ceiling negotiations (Think the "punt the football" to December, 2023 seems very plausible to me), but it really needs to be recognized the "out of power" party has a lot of reasons to essentially sabotage the American economy before an upcoming election.
I still think the trump factor outsizes any headwinds the democrats face in 2024.
We will just have to disagree on the impact of how the debt ceiling impasse plays out.
Looking forward to the cocktail episode; I enjoyed the last one and subscribed to Suderman's substack after listening. My question is about milk-washing liquor and clarified milk punch drinks. Sounds gross but I've seen videos of people doing it and it seems like a fun project, but is it worth trying? If so, what's a good cocktail to start with?