Who is this ad for? Not Republican primary voters. At least, not directly. But it does get at some serious electoral problems for the Florida governor.
My first reaction was that this was all about establishing Desantis as a Receiver of Donald Trump's Noogies. That dynamic is probably more than enough to get Trump the nomination, to say nothing of the substantive political issues
Josh, what do you make of more normie Republicans like DeWine and Kemp winning re-election easily, despite similar abortion bans? Do you think it’s because their states are just solidly red and it would be a different story in a general election? There are a couple of states where abortion didn’t seem to sway the election as much for Republicans, so just kind of puzzled there.
The rw media love for Desantis inflated expectations for him, which created the conditions for a let down. In the same way they thought Rubio would translate to a diverse audience, they hope Desantis would translate to a Trump shaped party. I don’t think he’s as smart as he thinks he is.
I agree completely - His "anti-woke" rhetoric and seeming air of competence in governing Florida allowed him to be whatever Republican voters wanted to project onto him - primarily someone who could own the libs without the Trump drama, win the primary, and then pivot to be agreeable to the middle during general campaign season. Signing the 6-week abortion pledge likely just torpedoed all that. Put aside the retro awkwardness of an 11PM signing (as if Twitter ever sleeps), but he just can't run away from this position that is deeply unpopular. Trump preternaturally senses weaknesses in others and I expect he will use this remorselessly.
Seems like it could be the trumpsters or the democrats.
Both want him to get the nomination.
Regardless of your arguments about Biden's policies, wins, losses, good, decisions or bad .... the biggest advantage he could hope for is running against trump again.
I wonder if political science types have thoughts about how we might get to one-party rule as painlessly as possible. Think of the money that could be saved. I don't know any conservatives that have much or any expectation of electoral success long term (even ever again, to be honest) - the candidates who continue to run *in some sense* under the conservative mantle, like DeSantis*, will be people who aren't big readers, more given to instinct than to thinking perhaps, and in particular have not entertained any of the ideas to which e.g. Christopher Caldwell gave expression in (the misleadingly-named) "The Age of Entitlement". ("Two Consitutions in Tension" would have actually been more succinct.) That doesn't mean they are bad people, necessarily, or even stupid - but it may be it's narrow, local, intra-party political smarts they chiefly have. And that's nothing, nothing relevant anyway, compared to the US government.
Which is not to say that the energy of confused, soi-disant patriots will be immediately dissipated. How to neutralize whatever remains of that "team spirit" that has no role to play - or should it be criminalized? Should the government make greater use of the concept of "terror"?
*Wasn't he in the military? I have to think the pudding business** was owing to a certain ascetic, make-do attitude: helmet for my pillow, fingers for a spoon. Trump famously ate a hamburger with a knife and fork, supposedly, which seemed simultaneously effete and gauche.
**I really can't judge, except for the idea of eating packaged pudding, which I do judge. I remember once greedily choosing a candy bar (Reese's probably) at the camp store. (You know how hungry you get on a camping trip ...). Then we set off on the trail, and I was soon quite ready for my candy bar. Not soon enough - it had already melted, of course. My husband looked on horrified: "No, no, stop, don't do that!" But of course I would eat it, or die trying. It was a messy, awkward few minutes, and then to compound my peccadillo, I rinsed my hands and face (and hair? I can't remember) in the stream, fouling the pristine waters of Zion National Park.
I should note, in fairness or bipartisan spirit, that while I am always hard on the Texas Lege - bunch of bubbas and urban demagogues, or folks who were perhaps sent to Austin just to get them out of their hometowns - you meet smart young legislators sometimes, D and R - they tend to carry the conservation bills. They are bright and accomplished.
And one thing they have in common - they are never, ever invited to get on the ladder, to go up to The Show in D.C. Their careers start and end here. I have the impression this is true of other states as well. The machine for generating national talent has broken down somehow. Or their talents are not required.
A fair amount of it depends on personal ambition of the candidate. Look at Pat Fallon’s rise out of the Texas State House, into the State Senate, and now to the Federal House. He jumped on open opportunities as they presented themselves.
I think you are underestimating how much even his covid policies could be a general election liability. I think you can make a case that his 2020/2021 “middle ground” covid policies were adroit at least politically (I’ll set aside the debate about whether it was “right” morally”).
But he’s leaned pretty hard into a much more right wing and off putting to median voters covid policy last 18 months. The vaccine is the obvious place to point to. His early vaccine policy was probably quite good and I think he had real reason to crow that the 60 minutes hit piece was was just that, a hit piece. But then he hired Joseph Ladapo, has increasingly suggested the vaccines are unsafe and has called for pharmaceutical companies to be investigated. Considering most people got at least the first shot are we really sure this wouldn’t be a general election liability?
I agree his vaccine skepticism is unpopular. I wonder about how politically salient it is. I think most of the public views whether to get boosters as a matter of individual choice, and I'm not sure people are anywhere near as tuned into politicians' views on vaccines as they were in 2021.
Me too. Gross is the exact word I used describing this add to someone a couple of days ago - and also childish. (And I frat saw the ad linked in a column in The Dispatch, not exactly a liberal pubication.)
Desantis has now paired Paul Ryan's least popular positions with Santorum's.
My first reaction was that this was all about establishing Desantis as a Receiver of Donald Trump's Noogies. That dynamic is probably more than enough to get Trump the nomination, to say nothing of the substantive political issues
Josh, what do you make of more normie Republicans like DeWine and Kemp winning re-election easily, despite similar abortion bans? Do you think it’s because their states are just solidly red and it would be a different story in a general election? There are a couple of states where abortion didn’t seem to sway the election as much for Republicans, so just kind of puzzled there.
The rw media love for Desantis inflated expectations for him, which created the conditions for a let down. In the same way they thought Rubio would translate to a diverse audience, they hope Desantis would translate to a Trump shaped party. I don’t think he’s as smart as he thinks he is.
I agree completely - His "anti-woke" rhetoric and seeming air of competence in governing Florida allowed him to be whatever Republican voters wanted to project onto him - primarily someone who could own the libs without the Trump drama, win the primary, and then pivot to be agreeable to the middle during general campaign season. Signing the 6-week abortion pledge likely just torpedoed all that. Put aside the retro awkwardness of an 11PM signing (as if Twitter ever sleeps), but he just can't run away from this position that is deeply unpopular. Trump preternaturally senses weaknesses in others and I expect he will use this remorselessly.
Seems like it could be the trumpsters or the democrats.
Both want him to get the nomination.
Regardless of your arguments about Biden's policies, wins, losses, good, decisions or bad .... the biggest advantage he could hope for is running against trump again.
Would beat him by even a larger margin this time.
Tina Fey said that and it was really funny.
I wonder if political science types have thoughts about how we might get to one-party rule as painlessly as possible. Think of the money that could be saved. I don't know any conservatives that have much or any expectation of electoral success long term (even ever again, to be honest) - the candidates who continue to run *in some sense* under the conservative mantle, like DeSantis*, will be people who aren't big readers, more given to instinct than to thinking perhaps, and in particular have not entertained any of the ideas to which e.g. Christopher Caldwell gave expression in (the misleadingly-named) "The Age of Entitlement". ("Two Consitutions in Tension" would have actually been more succinct.) That doesn't mean they are bad people, necessarily, or even stupid - but it may be it's narrow, local, intra-party political smarts they chiefly have. And that's nothing, nothing relevant anyway, compared to the US government.
Which is not to say that the energy of confused, soi-disant patriots will be immediately dissipated. How to neutralize whatever remains of that "team spirit" that has no role to play - or should it be criminalized? Should the government make greater use of the concept of "terror"?
*Wasn't he in the military? I have to think the pudding business** was owing to a certain ascetic, make-do attitude: helmet for my pillow, fingers for a spoon. Trump famously ate a hamburger with a knife and fork, supposedly, which seemed simultaneously effete and gauche.
**I really can't judge, except for the idea of eating packaged pudding, which I do judge. I remember once greedily choosing a candy bar (Reese's probably) at the camp store. (You know how hungry you get on a camping trip ...). Then we set off on the trail, and I was soon quite ready for my candy bar. Not soon enough - it had already melted, of course. My husband looked on horrified: "No, no, stop, don't do that!" But of course I would eat it, or die trying. It was a messy, awkward few minutes, and then to compound my peccadillo, I rinsed my hands and face (and hair? I can't remember) in the stream, fouling the pristine waters of Zion National Park.
I should note, in fairness or bipartisan spirit, that while I am always hard on the Texas Lege - bunch of bubbas and urban demagogues, or folks who were perhaps sent to Austin just to get them out of their hometowns - you meet smart young legislators sometimes, D and R - they tend to carry the conservation bills. They are bright and accomplished.
And one thing they have in common - they are never, ever invited to get on the ladder, to go up to The Show in D.C. Their careers start and end here. I have the impression this is true of other states as well. The machine for generating national talent has broken down somehow. Or their talents are not required.
A fair amount of it depends on personal ambition of the candidate. Look at Pat Fallon’s rise out of the Texas State House, into the State Senate, and now to the Federal House. He jumped on open opportunities as they presented themselves.
I think you are underestimating how much even his covid policies could be a general election liability. I think you can make a case that his 2020/2021 “middle ground” covid policies were adroit at least politically (I’ll set aside the debate about whether it was “right” morally”).
But he’s leaned pretty hard into a much more right wing and off putting to median voters covid policy last 18 months. The vaccine is the obvious place to point to. His early vaccine policy was probably quite good and I think he had real reason to crow that the 60 minutes hit piece was was just that, a hit piece. But then he hired Joseph Ladapo, has increasingly suggested the vaccines are unsafe and has called for pharmaceutical companies to be investigated. Considering most people got at least the first shot are we really sure this wouldn’t be a general election liability?
I agree his vaccine skepticism is unpopular. I wonder about how politically salient it is. I think most of the public views whether to get boosters as a matter of individual choice, and I'm not sure people are anywhere near as tuned into politicians' views on vaccines as they were in 2021.
Me too. Gross is the exact word I used describing this add to someone a couple of days ago - and also childish. (And I frat saw the ad linked in a column in The Dispatch, not exactly a liberal pubication.)