I’m with you. I think it’s the BEST line of attack from Biden. But I worry it won’t be enough if inflation and gas are too high and the border is still a mess. Biden can only do so much on those issues, especially immigration, but he needs to be out in front and be willing to reduce the deficit, permit more access to drilling--something-…
I’m with you. I think it’s the BEST line of attack from Biden. But I worry it won’t be enough if inflation and gas are too high and the border is still a mess. Biden can only do so much on those issues, especially immigration, but he needs to be out in front and be willing to reduce the deficit, permit more access to drilling--something--to show Americans he is doing all he can to ease economic pressures, even if it means pissing off the left flank of his party. It won’t be easy, but it might be necessary.
Indeed! I hope he keeps it up—wisely, of course. It’s about finding that sweet spot, but I do think he is capable. This is where Biden’s empathy and warmth really come into play. It’ll piss off the left, but they may tolerate it more because he is a likable guy.
He can do things like the Willow project and overturning the DC crime bill because he has no fear of a primary challenge from the left and knows that those folks will come out to vote for him the general because of the terrifying Republican candidate.
Meanwhile, Trump and DeSantis will engage in a 15 month long bloodfest and keep pushing each other to the right and likely have the winner emerge damaged and disliked by the population.
Which might set Biden up for winning by a point or so, depending on the economy.
I agree, although I guess I’m more optimistic about Biden than you are.
It just seems as clear to me as these things get that Trump is the Republican candidate with the best chance of winning. People shrug past the prospect of Trump being a sore loser, or concoct fantasies about DeSantis winning Trump’s support by promising a pardon. But Trump has already heavily hinted that DeSantis is a child molester and the race has barely begun.
The Trump wild card will determine a lot. It’s a good point. Does he tell his voters to stay home and screw DeSantis over, should DeSantis even win? Does he run as an Independent (I think less likely)? That considered, I like Biden’s chances better. I was envisioning a DeSantis vs. Biden race WITHOUT Trump in the picture. Ha.
If there is one thing we know about the man it is that he won’t admit he lost an election. Republicans risk catastrophic, Ted-Cruz-looses-in-Texas style defeat if Trump actively opposes their nominee (he doesn’t even have to actually run). They are ignoring this now, but when it snaps into focus I assume that they will do the tactically sensible thing and pick Trump.
Maybe I'm wrong, but I think the Republicans will have a hard time beating even indicted Trump. They'd have to actually say that Trump lost the last election, that Trump is corrupt, the indictment isn't a conspiracy by the people who stole the last election.
Most influential Republicans *think* this, but only marginal figures like Mitt Romney or Larry Hogan *say* it. If it is politically impossible for DeSantis to say what he and people like him (e.g. the hosts of Fox News) clearly think about Trump, he'll be fighting Trump with both hands tied behind his back.
My gut response to this scenario is they’ll pull a Chris Sununu type of dodge (Trump did his service, did some great things, but we’re moving on), but what precisely are they going to say about his indictment? That he deserves it? Play into the deep state narrative (which works to Biden’s advantage)? How do you play that without alienating the base? The indictment may hamstring Trump from campaigning, which may give DeSantis the advantage, but I’m honestly not sure how they’re going to “move on” without some disadvantage. It’s not gonna be easy.
People forget how intense Trump gets. DeSantis can say - Trump did a good job, but sometimes took his eye off the ball. These phony indictments are a political distraction.
Trump will respond with something like: if elected I will lock Tiny D up for molesting his students as a high school teacher. Now that's a real crime, but they won't charge RINO globalists like Ron.
Oh, for sure. Trump is the master at childish political zingers that just overpower the opponent by their sheer absurdity. You just can't engage with it on a rational level other than try to give it right back to him.
Maybe I'm confused about the logistics, how does the indictment hamstring Trump from campaigning? Unless he's actually imprisoned, can't he campaign like normal?
Well, Trump is talking like they’re about to come arrest him. Does he stay in custody while he is waiting for a conviction? Not sure… But that would be the scenario in which is unable to campaign.
He would not be held in custody. He's an extremely famous person who is trying to be elected president. He's basically the opposite of a flight risk. And he'd be a first-time offender charged with a not-especially-serious non-violent felony (or maybe even a misdemeanor).
He can't get out there and campaign and defend himself at his rallies. That could be a game changer, but then again, maybe not. Your point seems plausible to me. If so, does he tell his base to stay home and sabotage Ron or the Republican nominee, or is he more worried about his self-preservation at that point?
I’m with you. I think it’s the BEST line of attack from Biden. But I worry it won’t be enough if inflation and gas are too high and the border is still a mess. Biden can only do so much on those issues, especially immigration, but he needs to be out in front and be willing to reduce the deficit, permit more access to drilling--something--to show Americans he is doing all he can to ease economic pressures, even if it means pissing off the left flank of his party. It won’t be easy, but it might be necessary.
He just approved a new oil project that pissed off members of his party earlier this week!
Indeed! I hope he keeps it up—wisely, of course. It’s about finding that sweet spot, but I do think he is capable. This is where Biden’s empathy and warmth really come into play. It’ll piss off the left, but they may tolerate it more because he is a likable guy.
He can do things like the Willow project and overturning the DC crime bill because he has no fear of a primary challenge from the left and knows that those folks will come out to vote for him the general because of the terrifying Republican candidate.
Meanwhile, Trump and DeSantis will engage in a 15 month long bloodfest and keep pushing each other to the right and likely have the winner emerge damaged and disliked by the population.
Which might set Biden up for winning by a point or so, depending on the economy.
Where are all the people applauding him for his “Sister Souljah” moments?
We are here, and at Slow Boring…
I agree, although I guess I’m more optimistic about Biden than you are.
It just seems as clear to me as these things get that Trump is the Republican candidate with the best chance of winning. People shrug past the prospect of Trump being a sore loser, or concoct fantasies about DeSantis winning Trump’s support by promising a pardon. But Trump has already heavily hinted that DeSantis is a child molester and the race has barely begun.
The Trump wild card will determine a lot. It’s a good point. Does he tell his voters to stay home and screw DeSantis over, should DeSantis even win? Does he run as an Independent (I think less likely)? That considered, I like Biden’s chances better. I was envisioning a DeSantis vs. Biden race WITHOUT Trump in the picture. Ha.
If there is one thing we know about the man it is that he won’t admit he lost an election. Republicans risk catastrophic, Ted-Cruz-looses-in-Texas style defeat if Trump actively opposes their nominee (he doesn’t even have to actually run). They are ignoring this now, but when it snaps into focus I assume that they will do the tactically sensible thing and pick Trump.
If Trump is really gonna be indicted, like he seems to think, we will see how this plays out, too.
Maybe I'm wrong, but I think the Republicans will have a hard time beating even indicted Trump. They'd have to actually say that Trump lost the last election, that Trump is corrupt, the indictment isn't a conspiracy by the people who stole the last election.
Most influential Republicans *think* this, but only marginal figures like Mitt Romney or Larry Hogan *say* it. If it is politically impossible for DeSantis to say what he and people like him (e.g. the hosts of Fox News) clearly think about Trump, he'll be fighting Trump with both hands tied behind his back.
My gut response to this scenario is they’ll pull a Chris Sununu type of dodge (Trump did his service, did some great things, but we’re moving on), but what precisely are they going to say about his indictment? That he deserves it? Play into the deep state narrative (which works to Biden’s advantage)? How do you play that without alienating the base? The indictment may hamstring Trump from campaigning, which may give DeSantis the advantage, but I’m honestly not sure how they’re going to “move on” without some disadvantage. It’s not gonna be easy.
People forget how intense Trump gets. DeSantis can say - Trump did a good job, but sometimes took his eye off the ball. These phony indictments are a political distraction.
Trump will respond with something like: if elected I will lock Tiny D up for molesting his students as a high school teacher. Now that's a real crime, but they won't charge RINO globalists like Ron.
Oh, for sure. Trump is the master at childish political zingers that just overpower the opponent by their sheer absurdity. You just can't engage with it on a rational level other than try to give it right back to him.
Maybe I'm confused about the logistics, how does the indictment hamstring Trump from campaigning? Unless he's actually imprisoned, can't he campaign like normal?
Well, Trump is talking like they’re about to come arrest him. Does he stay in custody while he is waiting for a conviction? Not sure… But that would be the scenario in which is unable to campaign.
He would not be held in custody. He's an extremely famous person who is trying to be elected president. He's basically the opposite of a flight risk. And he'd be a first-time offender charged with a not-especially-serious non-violent felony (or maybe even a misdemeanor).
Gotcha. So he’s just ranting on Truth Social about being taken to New York for hearings, etc.?
I’m sure Josh and Ken discuss this at length on Serious Trouble! I think I’m gonna tune in.
Sincere question - how would an indictment hurt Trump in the primary? None of his supporters trust the system.
He can't get out there and campaign and defend himself at his rallies. That could be a game changer, but then again, maybe not. Your point seems plausible to me. If so, does he tell his base to stay home and sabotage Ron or the Republican nominee, or is he more worried about his self-preservation at that point?