Honestly, his strategy so far has been Warren-esque, in the sense that it’s a campaign focused on neurotic journalists and overly-online nerds. Just the right wing neurotic nerds instead of the left wing versions.
(He’s still a better politician than Warren, but Warren also wasn’t always as bad as she is now…it takes a lot of kool aid drinking to get to that point, but DeSantis is on his way)
I remember when Christopher Caldwell was praising her in The Weekly Standard for writing The Two Income Trap - she used to be a more interesting figure.
It is funny to imagine what she’d be like today if she had run against Hillary Clinton instead of Sanders - a lot of people who are in a position to know associate the mainstreaming of “wokeness” with Clinton’s cynical anti- Sanders tactics.
The far left at its best makes combating economic inequality *so* central to its worldview that the leftists arrive at nuanced takes on cultural liberalism and resist dumb fads.
You could see some of that attitude in Warren's early career and in Bernie Sander's 2016 campaign. Unfortunately Hilary Clinton's response was to double down on cultural fads, and the left responded by tripling down and pretending there was no choice between cultural avant-guardism and economic radicalism. (Warren is exhibit A, but Sanders himself wasn't immune, and most of "Bernie World" lacks Bernie's good qualities.) It has put both the left and the center-left in a weird, dreamlike headspace. (Not Biden, fortunately!)
That's what I found implausible about this very good Douthat column (https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/18/opinion/woke-definition.html): no "woke" person would admit that there's a tradeoff between their priorities and environmentalism or economic redistribution. It is a worldview that denies the existence of tradeoffs.
Overall, I agree with the general thrust, but I think you overstate Crist’s strengths and how swingy Florida is in 2022. In the same election Desantis win by 19, Rubio won by 16 (a more apples to apples comparison). Also, Crist did well against Rick Scott, but he did significantly worse in his house election in 2020 than he did in 2018
Yeah, I think Florida voters had enough of Crist. He was the best option Democrats had, but he was around too long and was the poster child of a career politician. I still liked him and I think he had a good heart, but combine that career politician image with being outspent by DeSantis’ massive war chest and, well, the results speak for themselves.
IMO the Rubio win was more impressive. Demmings was a stronger candidate with less baggage. But as we all saw she didn’t stand a chance. Rubio is reasonably popular, but the fact that he outpaced Blumenthal, Schumer and Grassley says it’s time to update swing state priors.
That and I think Trumpers seem to view Rubio with skepticism and as something of an establishment candidate. They tolerate him but aren’t on fire for him. He was certainly preferable to Demmings for them. But I dunno; this is just conjecture.
There is a metric asston of motivated reasoning for all of these "Is DeSantis already done?" takes. As is often the case, it usually speaks to someone's strengths to have this many enemies. The entire Democratic party is invested in his primary defeat. Trumpists are obviously frightened by him. And so are the pathetic Bulwark neocons that already fled to greener pastures once Trump bulldozed their status. None of these takes actually have any idea what voters think. And an anti-woke, anti-capital, anti-war candidate is the reflection of the new insurgent GOP that can capture a formidable voting block. That's just the truth.
We will see just how formidable DeSantis’ anti-woke spiel is in a general, if he makes it there. He or Trump will certainly use it. And I wonder if his hyperbolic, culture war demagoguing would play as effectively in a general as well.
Fumy how "[t]hat's just the truth" is the position of all sorts of people on all sides of any internet controversy. Apparently, we are just supposed to believe them on faith.
Well in state contests Democrats have had good results from running ads in primary season attacking the person they *want* to run against as too conservative, and in some cases giving that person money directly.
If national democrats are really invested in Trump being the candidate they should keep talking about how bad he is and encouraging DAs to prosecute him
It’s a very Elon Musk-ish state, honestly - culturally libertarian-ish (or at least not very religious) in a way that didn’t work with the religious or neocon right, but a much better fit with the Trump right. And they have always been entrepreneurial and favored low taxes and few rules. I think it’s a red state in the current alignment
Yeah, it’s definitely unique all on its own. Certainly can’t paint with too broad a brush. I’m still kind of stumped how Gillum almost beat DeSantis, yet DeSantis won by so much against a more moderate Democrat. Like Josh has said, Florida has gotten redder, but not THAT red.
Color me unimpressed by DeSantis's landslide victory. He won by 19 points; Mike DeWine just won reelection in Ohio by 25 points, and Chris Sununu in New Hampshire by 17 points. Greg Abbott beat richly-financed Beto O'Rourke by 11. Marco Rubio -- no one's idea of a Trump slayer -- just won reelection in Florida by 16 points. DeSantis has won his two gubernatorial races (against weak candidates) by a cumulative 20 points. Jeb Bush won his two races -- when Florida was *much* more of a swing state (see: Bush v. Gore) -- by a cumulative 24 points.
Had DeSantis won reelection narrowly that would have raised serious doubts about him. Winning by a substantial, but not unusual, margin merely means that he dodged a possible bullet and remains a viable presidential candidate.
He won by 19 points while he and every other Repub was facing an anti-Trump election denying headwind of at least 8 or 9 points as well. What should have been a shellacking midterm election turned out to be a push everywhere except Long Island and FLA.
Well, yes, but DeSantis certainly had some wind at his back with inflation and crime. Republicans were the ones that were supposed to do the shellacking. And DeSantis did. Voters rewarded him most of all for his pandemic policy.
I certainly think DeWine and Sununu would be stronger general election candidates than DeSantis. They show how hazardous it is for Democrats when Republicans actually try hard not to be off-putting to the center. Fortunately for Biden, DeWine won’t run for president and Sununu can’t win the nomination.
This is true. And I guess it's lucky for the Democrats that the Republican party is in such a state that one can't envision them putting forth a moderate centrist candidate. (And think how hard it would be for DeSantis to "pivot to the center" after 18 months of running hard to Trump's right.)
But it would still be a nail-biter of a race no matter who they put up. The Republicans could run Abraham Lincoln and probably not win by more than a percentage point. Same with the Democrats running George Washington crossed with FDR. Just the state of our politics these days.
The last poll I saw had DeSantis up +4 with independents over Biden but it also looks like DeSantis is waning with Republican support in a matchup against Trump. This causes problems for him because he needs to beat Trump before he can get to the general, which means focusing on stuff that appeals to the base. I don't know if DeSantis is "savvy" or not, but he appears to be playing the had he is being dealt based on the operational realities.
Mostly agree, but Nate Cohn’s piece today for NYT was interesting - if DeSantis doesn’t play offense against Trump, he’s probably not going to win. And I’m not sure he’s savvy enough to play offense against Trump
The case he'll try to make is "I accomplished the things Trump talks about and didn't accomplish," although I don't know whether the primary electorate cares about anything being accomplished.
This is all very smart - I'm beginning to worry that if Trump wins the primary by attacking De Santis on Medicare and Social Security it will put him in a very strong position vs. Biden.
For my money, the biggest obstacle to DeSantis being elected president remains the likelihood that Trump will torpedo his campaign if he beats Trump for the nomination. I'm not sure how he can solve this problem.
I’m glad to see Josh is at least starting to get over his addiction to copium on DeSantis. Not surprised that these comments and the likes of David Frum (lol) are mainlining it.
Keep telling yourself DeSantis will be easy to beat. He’s definitely beatable, and has definitely made some mistakes in the early game, but clownishly pronouncing ‘flame-outs’ or that he’s ‘Warren-esque’ 20 months before the general election is simply unserious wishful thinking.
I don’t think he’ll be easy to beat, just that his campaign so far has been very right wing media-focused. The risk is that he starts believing that normal people care about weird side issues, which is a trap that has caught prominent politicians (Warren) in the past. I think DeSantis is savvier and will pivot, but we really don’t know.
My general opinion has always been that 2024 is a coin flip and will be decided based on gas prices in November 2024.
I somewhat disagree that Crist was a formidable opponent. I think he was seen as a retread and yesterday’s news. Also, Florida doesn’t seem to be much of s swing state at all anymore. Obama barely won there in 2012, and no Democrat has won a statewide election there since.
Another note: I haven’t really listened to DeSantis speak until recently. He doesn’t have a good speaking voice. It’s somewhat nasally. I know that may sound superficial, but it’s those superficial things that matter on a subconscious level in politics.
I'm not sure I agree that the GOP has effective lines of attack on gas prices or inflation. In 2022, when inflation was worse, the GOP attacks on inflation did not do much for them.
I do think Democrats need to keep their eye on the ball when it comes to crime but I think Joe Biden is best situated to do this out of nearly any other Democrat on the ballot in 2024.
No one knows what conditions will be like 18 months from now but as a Democrat I wish we had already had what might have been a short, mild recession by now, and ready to pull out of it with a growing economy by fall 2024. With stubborn even if not super high inflation, it seems that that recession may keep being pushed to the right on the calendar. My main worries: Biden falls and breaks his hip and/or the recession starts in 10 months.
Josh, I can't believe you are still participating in the polite fiction that Biden is an acceptable candidate to run for President again. He slipped into office solely because of the near universal revulsion to Trump among thinking Americans, the connivance of the MSM allowing him to hide in his basement and judges/legislatures using Covid to stand black letter law on it's head for ballot harvesting purposes. Anyone honest would admit the man was on the precipice of dementia during that campaign, and despite some lucid intervals since, is clearly progressing down that path today. Compound that with the fact he dumped Amy Klobuchar for the inane misfit Kamala, and refuses to acknowledge the mistake, yet no one on the moderate left will admit the emperor has no clothes. You are showing the courage, character, integrity and patriotism of Rence Prebius with your stand on this issue.
He seems like a normal guy doing a competent job. He's as moderate as the leader of a party can be these days, he works with Republicans, is mostly immune to weird left-wing fads and lowers the temperature of political debates.
It takes some doing not to be a culture-war lightning rod, Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter were both moderates but Republicans *hated* them.
You never know but I assume he will be reelected, presidents normally are & he is a very normal president.
He is boring and can govern. Being able to get substantive policy issues through and prioritizing working Americans. Being competent--but that does depend on if inflation and gas prices improve, etc., otherwise I think he’ll be perceived as incompetent to the average voter.
I think this take is very good. Here’s my take: If DeSantis gets past Trump (far from certain), and inflation, gas prices, and the border are still too high and a mess, respectively, Biden will be vulnerable--and will probably get beat. I say that as someone who strongly dislikes DeSantis. I think voters’ intuitions will be that Biden is old and past his prime and just isn’t governing competently. BUT, there is still lots of time for those things to get better, or at least for Biden to stick to the center and show voters he is doing everything he can on those issues, including being willing to work with Republicans. Pounding that message into voters’ brains. I think THAT is his winning strategy.
I don't agree: "mediscare" is the most powerful attack the Democrats have, and Biden knows exactly how to make it land against somebody like De Santis. The attack would be doubly powerful if Trump himself had made it during the primary.
In the event Trump loses I assume he won't concede and will keep talking about how "Tiny D" is trying to take medicare away from seniors.
Along with Medicare, if Florida passes the 6 week abortion ban, abortion will be a huge negative for DeSantis in the general election. I expect abortion to be even more of a factor in 24 than it was in 22, especially if the abortion pill is ruled illegal, which could happen any day now.
Yes it will. And guess what bill Florida’s House of Representatives just passed this week, only to be kicked over to the Senate and on to DeSantis’ desk in short order?
I’m with you. I think it’s the BEST line of attack from Biden. But I worry it won’t be enough if inflation and gas are too high and the border is still a mess. Biden can only do so much on those issues, especially immigration, but he needs to be out in front and be willing to reduce the deficit, permit more access to drilling--something--to show Americans he is doing all he can to ease economic pressures, even if it means pissing off the left flank of his party. It won’t be easy, but it might be necessary.
Indeed! I hope he keeps it up—wisely, of course. It’s about finding that sweet spot, but I do think he is capable. This is where Biden’s empathy and warmth really come into play. It’ll piss off the left, but they may tolerate it more because he is a likable guy.
He can do things like the Willow project and overturning the DC crime bill because he has no fear of a primary challenge from the left and knows that those folks will come out to vote for him the general because of the terrifying Republican candidate.
Meanwhile, Trump and DeSantis will engage in a 15 month long bloodfest and keep pushing each other to the right and likely have the winner emerge damaged and disliked by the population.
Which might set Biden up for winning by a point or so, depending on the economy.
I agree, although I guess I’m more optimistic about Biden than you are.
It just seems as clear to me as these things get that Trump is the Republican candidate with the best chance of winning. People shrug past the prospect of Trump being a sore loser, or concoct fantasies about DeSantis winning Trump’s support by promising a pardon. But Trump has already heavily hinted that DeSantis is a child molester and the race has barely begun.
The Trump wild card will determine a lot. It’s a good point. Does he tell his voters to stay home and screw DeSantis over, should DeSantis even win? Does he run as an Independent (I think less likely)? That considered, I like Biden’s chances better. I was envisioning a DeSantis vs. Biden race WITHOUT Trump in the picture. Ha.
If there is one thing we know about the man it is that he won’t admit he lost an election. Republicans risk catastrophic, Ted-Cruz-looses-in-Texas style defeat if Trump actively opposes their nominee (he doesn’t even have to actually run). They are ignoring this now, but when it snaps into focus I assume that they will do the tactically sensible thing and pick Trump.
Honestly, his strategy so far has been Warren-esque, in the sense that it’s a campaign focused on neurotic journalists and overly-online nerds. Just the right wing neurotic nerds instead of the left wing versions.
(He’s still a better politician than Warren, but Warren also wasn’t always as bad as she is now…it takes a lot of kool aid drinking to get to that point, but DeSantis is on his way)
I remember when Christopher Caldwell was praising her in The Weekly Standard for writing The Two Income Trap - she used to be a more interesting figure.
It is funny to imagine what she’d be like today if she had run against Hillary Clinton instead of Sanders - a lot of people who are in a position to know associate the mainstreaming of “wokeness” with Clinton’s cynical anti- Sanders tactics.
Yes her early work was original and cut across partisan assumptions, it would be good to revisit those ideas.
The far left at its best makes combating economic inequality *so* central to its worldview that the leftists arrive at nuanced takes on cultural liberalism and resist dumb fads.
You could see some of that attitude in Warren's early career and in Bernie Sander's 2016 campaign. Unfortunately Hilary Clinton's response was to double down on cultural fads, and the left responded by tripling down and pretending there was no choice between cultural avant-guardism and economic radicalism. (Warren is exhibit A, but Sanders himself wasn't immune, and most of "Bernie World" lacks Bernie's good qualities.) It has put both the left and the center-left in a weird, dreamlike headspace. (Not Biden, fortunately!)
That's what I found implausible about this very good Douthat column (https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/18/opinion/woke-definition.html): no "woke" person would admit that there's a tradeoff between their priorities and environmentalism or economic redistribution. It is a worldview that denies the existence of tradeoffs.
Overall, I agree with the general thrust, but I think you overstate Crist’s strengths and how swingy Florida is in 2022. In the same election Desantis win by 19, Rubio won by 16 (a more apples to apples comparison). Also, Crist did well against Rick Scott, but he did significantly worse in his house election in 2020 than he did in 2018
Yeah, I think Florida voters had enough of Crist. He was the best option Democrats had, but he was around too long and was the poster child of a career politician. I still liked him and I think he had a good heart, but combine that career politician image with being outspent by DeSantis’ massive war chest and, well, the results speak for themselves.
IMO the Rubio win was more impressive. Demmings was a stronger candidate with less baggage. But as we all saw she didn’t stand a chance. Rubio is reasonably popular, but the fact that he outpaced Blumenthal, Schumer and Grassley says it’s time to update swing state priors.
Everyone underrates Rubio's win for some reason. With his margin I wonder why he isn't in contention for 2024, but desantis is.
Because of how ignominiously he flamed out in 2016.
Little Marco was Trump’s best nickname and Rubio is just never coming back from that
I don’t know, Meatball Ron is pretty funny, too!
I'm partial to "Jeff Bozo" myself
(Well that and low energy Jeb, but Jeb was never a thing in the first place)
That and I think Trumpers seem to view Rubio with skepticism and as something of an establishment candidate. They tolerate him but aren’t on fire for him. He was certainly preferable to Demmings for them. But I dunno; this is just conjecture.
DeSantis is more of a culture warrior and garners more attention. Rubio also just doesn’t have as much influence as DeSantis does as governor.
Sure but all those things were true in 2016, too! (When Rubio had a ton of pull!)
Good point. I DEFINITELY did not see Rubio winning by sixteen.
There is a metric asston of motivated reasoning for all of these "Is DeSantis already done?" takes. As is often the case, it usually speaks to someone's strengths to have this many enemies. The entire Democratic party is invested in his primary defeat. Trumpists are obviously frightened by him. And so are the pathetic Bulwark neocons that already fled to greener pastures once Trump bulldozed their status. None of these takes actually have any idea what voters think. And an anti-woke, anti-capital, anti-war candidate is the reflection of the new insurgent GOP that can capture a formidable voting block. That's just the truth.
We will see just how formidable DeSantis’ anti-woke spiel is in a general, if he makes it there. He or Trump will certainly use it. And I wonder if his hyperbolic, culture war demagoguing would play as effectively in a general as well.
Fumy how "[t]hat's just the truth" is the position of all sorts of people on all sides of any internet controversy. Apparently, we are just supposed to believe them on faith.
How could Democrats operationalize this being totally invested in his primary defeat? Are they all going to re-register as Republicans?
Ha. I think they have to rally against Trump first, DeSantis second.
We Democrats literally do not have a vote.
We can rally all we want. So what?
Well in state contests Democrats have had good results from running ads in primary season attacking the person they *want* to run against as too conservative, and in some cases giving that person money directly.
If national democrats are really invested in Trump being the candidate they should keep talking about how bad he is and encouraging DAs to prosecute him
Great read. Is Florida really a swing state?
It’s a very Elon Musk-ish state, honestly - culturally libertarian-ish (or at least not very religious) in a way that didn’t work with the religious or neocon right, but a much better fit with the Trump right. And they have always been entrepreneurial and favored low taxes and few rules. I think it’s a red state in the current alignment
Yeah, it’s definitely unique all on its own. Certainly can’t paint with too broad a brush. I’m still kind of stumped how Gillum almost beat DeSantis, yet DeSantis won by so much against a more moderate Democrat. Like Josh has said, Florida has gotten redder, but not THAT red.
DeSantis can pivot to the middle, and his pandemic policy and culture war demagoguery seems to have worked well.
Kind of. It’s not as much anymore. Still winnable by a skilled Democrat who can raise a lot of money though, I think.
Color me unimpressed by DeSantis's landslide victory. He won by 19 points; Mike DeWine just won reelection in Ohio by 25 points, and Chris Sununu in New Hampshire by 17 points. Greg Abbott beat richly-financed Beto O'Rourke by 11. Marco Rubio -- no one's idea of a Trump slayer -- just won reelection in Florida by 16 points. DeSantis has won his two gubernatorial races (against weak candidates) by a cumulative 20 points. Jeb Bush won his two races -- when Florida was *much* more of a swing state (see: Bush v. Gore) -- by a cumulative 24 points.
Had DeSantis won reelection narrowly that would have raised serious doubts about him. Winning by a substantial, but not unusual, margin merely means that he dodged a possible bullet and remains a viable presidential candidate.
The election performance of Sununu v. DeSantis: a (Very) serious question - are NH and Florida really so fungible in the eyes of political pundits?
(I wouldn't have immediately recalled that Sununu was a Republican, in whatever sense he is, despite being old enough to know he is Sununu Numero 2.)
He won by 19 points while he and every other Repub was facing an anti-Trump election denying headwind of at least 8 or 9 points as well. What should have been a shellacking midterm election turned out to be a push everywhere except Long Island and FLA.
Well, yes, but DeSantis certainly had some wind at his back with inflation and crime. Republicans were the ones that were supposed to do the shellacking. And DeSantis did. Voters rewarded him most of all for his pandemic policy.
Mike DeWine and Chris Sununu respectfully disagree with that analysis.
I certainly think DeWine and Sununu would be stronger general election candidates than DeSantis. They show how hazardous it is for Democrats when Republicans actually try hard not to be off-putting to the center. Fortunately for Biden, DeWine won’t run for president and Sununu can’t win the nomination.
This is true. And I guess it's lucky for the Democrats that the Republican party is in such a state that one can't envision them putting forth a moderate centrist candidate. (And think how hard it would be for DeSantis to "pivot to the center" after 18 months of running hard to Trump's right.)
But it would still be a nail-biter of a race no matter who they put up. The Republicans could run Abraham Lincoln and probably not win by more than a percentage point. Same with the Democrats running George Washington crossed with FDR. Just the state of our politics these days.
The last poll I saw had DeSantis up +4 with independents over Biden but it also looks like DeSantis is waning with Republican support in a matchup against Trump. This causes problems for him because he needs to beat Trump before he can get to the general, which means focusing on stuff that appeals to the base. I don't know if DeSantis is "savvy" or not, but he appears to be playing the had he is being dealt based on the operational realities.
Mostly agree, but Nate Cohn’s piece today for NYT was interesting - if DeSantis doesn’t play offense against Trump, he’s probably not going to win. And I’m not sure he’s savvy enough to play offense against Trump
Why pick Great Valu store-brand Trump when you can just, like, pick actual yuuge, classy, golden, real Trump?
I can only assume DeSantis is desperately, desperately hoping Trump gets indicted. But I'm not even sure that would help.
The case he'll try to make is "I accomplished the things Trump talks about and didn't accomplish," although I don't know whether the primary electorate cares about anything being accomplished.
But wouldn't an indictment be a huge boost for Trump in the primary?
This is all very smart - I'm beginning to worry that if Trump wins the primary by attacking De Santis on Medicare and Social Security it will put him in a very strong position vs. Biden.
I worry about that, too. Trump’s instincts are sound on Medicare and Social Security.
For my money, the biggest obstacle to DeSantis being elected president remains the likelihood that Trump will torpedo his campaign if he beats Trump for the nomination. I'm not sure how he can solve this problem.
I’m glad to see Josh is at least starting to get over his addiction to copium on DeSantis. Not surprised that these comments and the likes of David Frum (lol) are mainlining it.
Keep telling yourself DeSantis will be easy to beat. He’s definitely beatable, and has definitely made some mistakes in the early game, but clownishly pronouncing ‘flame-outs’ or that he’s ‘Warren-esque’ 20 months before the general election is simply unserious wishful thinking.
We Democrats always think the sky is falling electorally. Anyone who thinks that DeSantis or Trump will be "easy to beat" is not a real Democrat.
In this historical era almost any presidential election will be very close and will probably turn on economic fundamental not candidates.
I don’t think he’ll be easy to beat, just that his campaign so far has been very right wing media-focused. The risk is that he starts believing that normal people care about weird side issues, which is a trap that has caught prominent politicians (Warren) in the past. I think DeSantis is savvier and will pivot, but we really don’t know.
My general opinion has always been that 2024 is a coin flip and will be decided based on gas prices in November 2024.
Josh, what the hell happened to you this season? How did you not even make the tourney this year?
https://twitter.com/ne0liberal/status/1636729303411851264?s=20
I somewhat disagree that Crist was a formidable opponent. I think he was seen as a retread and yesterday’s news. Also, Florida doesn’t seem to be much of s swing state at all anymore. Obama barely won there in 2012, and no Democrat has won a statewide election there since.
Another note: I haven’t really listened to DeSantis speak until recently. He doesn’t have a good speaking voice. It’s somewhat nasally. I know that may sound superficial, but it’s those superficial things that matter on a subconscious level in politics.
Not sure I agree.
I voted for him.
He ran in the middle.
Beat a hasty retreat to the left once elected.
I'm very disappointed.
I'm not sure I agree that the GOP has effective lines of attack on gas prices or inflation. In 2022, when inflation was worse, the GOP attacks on inflation did not do much for them.
I do think Democrats need to keep their eye on the ball when it comes to crime but I think Joe Biden is best situated to do this out of nearly any other Democrat on the ballot in 2024.
No one knows what conditions will be like 18 months from now but as a Democrat I wish we had already had what might have been a short, mild recession by now, and ready to pull out of it with a growing economy by fall 2024. With stubborn even if not super high inflation, it seems that that recession may keep being pushed to the right on the calendar. My main worries: Biden falls and breaks his hip and/or the recession starts in 10 months.
Josh, I can't believe you are still participating in the polite fiction that Biden is an acceptable candidate to run for President again. He slipped into office solely because of the near universal revulsion to Trump among thinking Americans, the connivance of the MSM allowing him to hide in his basement and judges/legislatures using Covid to stand black letter law on it's head for ballot harvesting purposes. Anyone honest would admit the man was on the precipice of dementia during that campaign, and despite some lucid intervals since, is clearly progressing down that path today. Compound that with the fact he dumped Amy Klobuchar for the inane misfit Kamala, and refuses to acknowledge the mistake, yet no one on the moderate left will admit the emperor has no clothes. You are showing the courage, character, integrity and patriotism of Rence Prebius with your stand on this issue.
Other than being a democrat, what is appealing to a swing voter about Biden.
I mean other than he's not trump or DeSantis
He seems like a normal guy doing a competent job. He's as moderate as the leader of a party can be these days, he works with Republicans, is mostly immune to weird left-wing fads and lowers the temperature of political debates.
It takes some doing not to be a culture-war lightning rod, Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter were both moderates but Republicans *hated* them.
You never know but I assume he will be reelected, presidents normally are & he is a very normal president.
He is boring and can govern. Being able to get substantive policy issues through and prioritizing working Americans. Being competent--but that does depend on if inflation and gas prices improve, etc., otherwise I think he’ll be perceived as incompetent to the average voter.
I think this take is very good. Here’s my take: If DeSantis gets past Trump (far from certain), and inflation, gas prices, and the border are still too high and a mess, respectively, Biden will be vulnerable--and will probably get beat. I say that as someone who strongly dislikes DeSantis. I think voters’ intuitions will be that Biden is old and past his prime and just isn’t governing competently. BUT, there is still lots of time for those things to get better, or at least for Biden to stick to the center and show voters he is doing everything he can on those issues, including being willing to work with Republicans. Pounding that message into voters’ brains. I think THAT is his winning strategy.
I don't agree: "mediscare" is the most powerful attack the Democrats have, and Biden knows exactly how to make it land against somebody like De Santis. The attack would be doubly powerful if Trump himself had made it during the primary.
In the event Trump loses I assume he won't concede and will keep talking about how "Tiny D" is trying to take medicare away from seniors.
Along with Medicare, if Florida passes the 6 week abortion ban, abortion will be a huge negative for DeSantis in the general election. I expect abortion to be even more of a factor in 24 than it was in 22, especially if the abortion pill is ruled illegal, which could happen any day now.
I doubt DeSantis wants to sign it, but his primary electorate will demand he do so. He really has no choice at this point.
Yes it will. And guess what bill Florida’s House of Representatives just passed this week, only to be kicked over to the Senate and on to DeSantis’ desk in short order?
I’m with you. I think it’s the BEST line of attack from Biden. But I worry it won’t be enough if inflation and gas are too high and the border is still a mess. Biden can only do so much on those issues, especially immigration, but he needs to be out in front and be willing to reduce the deficit, permit more access to drilling--something--to show Americans he is doing all he can to ease economic pressures, even if it means pissing off the left flank of his party. It won’t be easy, but it might be necessary.
He just approved a new oil project that pissed off members of his party earlier this week!
Indeed! I hope he keeps it up—wisely, of course. It’s about finding that sweet spot, but I do think he is capable. This is where Biden’s empathy and warmth really come into play. It’ll piss off the left, but they may tolerate it more because he is a likable guy.
He can do things like the Willow project and overturning the DC crime bill because he has no fear of a primary challenge from the left and knows that those folks will come out to vote for him the general because of the terrifying Republican candidate.
Meanwhile, Trump and DeSantis will engage in a 15 month long bloodfest and keep pushing each other to the right and likely have the winner emerge damaged and disliked by the population.
Which might set Biden up for winning by a point or so, depending on the economy.
Where are all the people applauding him for his “Sister Souljah” moments?
We are here, and at Slow Boring…
I agree, although I guess I’m more optimistic about Biden than you are.
It just seems as clear to me as these things get that Trump is the Republican candidate with the best chance of winning. People shrug past the prospect of Trump being a sore loser, or concoct fantasies about DeSantis winning Trump’s support by promising a pardon. But Trump has already heavily hinted that DeSantis is a child molester and the race has barely begun.
The Trump wild card will determine a lot. It’s a good point. Does he tell his voters to stay home and screw DeSantis over, should DeSantis even win? Does he run as an Independent (I think less likely)? That considered, I like Biden’s chances better. I was envisioning a DeSantis vs. Biden race WITHOUT Trump in the picture. Ha.
If there is one thing we know about the man it is that he won’t admit he lost an election. Republicans risk catastrophic, Ted-Cruz-looses-in-Texas style defeat if Trump actively opposes their nominee (he doesn’t even have to actually run). They are ignoring this now, but when it snaps into focus I assume that they will do the tactically sensible thing and pick Trump.
If Trump is really gonna be indicted, like he seems to think, we will see how this plays out, too.