IMO: Biden could use a “ Sister Souljah” moment, against the left on some of the identity stuff. He needs something, to appeal to Working class men, that he’s still “Middle class Joe”. He seems unwilling or unable so far.
The left really is Biden’s Achilles heel. Their determined pessimism and inability to feel happiness means that the message suggested in this post will be hit from both right and left, while Reagan just had to deal with opposition to his left. It will be Ilhan Omar and Jamaal Bowman telling America that Biden is out of touch if he says anything good about the economy, Trump just has to put a microphone in front of them and mention he agrees. Biden should recognize the left will never be happy and do what he can to throw them under the bus before they do the same to him
I don't think Biden really needs to pick more fights than he does. Everybody knows that he is different from the far left, that is why he is so much less hated than his recent predecessors and why Republicans have embraced their current cope strategy of saying Biden is senile and manipulated by his aids. Kamala Harris is the one who should pick a fight or two with the left on gender and policing.
That said, while I think that it is reasonable for Democrats to worry about a Ralph Nader figure, I bet RFK appeals to 2016 Sanders voters more than Elizabeth Warren or AOC does. Thinking that the progressive non-profit sphere represents left-leaning voters who might rebel against the party is like thinking Tea Party voters were clamoring for the Paul Ryan agenda, when in fact they wanted somebody like Trump.
The biggest advantage of being an incumbent is not having to fight people on your own side and then have to waste time during the general to mend wounds. Biden should run a completely forward looking campaign, reminding people of his successes, and leaving his left flank alone. The split in Congress helps because he doesn’t have to worry about pointless messaging bills he needs to act on or speak about.
He has a 35 percent approval rating. He may win by default, because he’s not Trump, but its still awful. If “ People know who Biden is” they’re not to thrilled.
There's no such thing as winning the presidency by default. Trump is a formidable candidate, most of the Democrats who had a chance at being nominated would probably have lost to him. Bernie Sanders or Gavin Newsom or Kamala Harris would probably lose to Trump this time around, but instead Biden stands a good chance of beating him second time.
Biden also did exceptionally well in the midterms and has gotten a lot done in office with small majorities. I wish that Biden personally and Democrats in general were doing better, but he really isn't the problem.
I respectfully disagree. Many who voted Democrat in the midterms, ( who might otherwise vote Republican) were voting against the GOP not for Biden. Still: a win is a win, but it does explain his consistent low poll numbers, that only seem to be getting worse. A 1/2 way sane opposition party, could easily win in 2024. Republicans are completely unhinged, and almost guaranteed to lose another winnable election.
I worry you are right & that I’m too confident about Biden’s low poll numbers, but I definitely don’t share your confidence that the Republicans are about to blow a winnable election. People similar to Trump have been winning big all over the democratic world for decades, from India to Brazil to Italy to (lol) Toronto. The “sane” opposition often does a bad job of competing with people like Trump and can’t understand why. Biden beat the crazy Democrats in 2020 and then beat Trump. If the “sane” Republicans were such great shakes, they’d be running the country. At the very least they could have gotten rid of Trump *after he lost.* “Sane” Republican voters like my relatives in Westchester have trouble accepting that they are now Biden Democrats, but their votes for Biden count as much as anybody else’s. I suspect the electorally important undecided voters are Perot-Sanders types who may be tempted by RFK.
Yeah there's just no good reason for Biden to make a little news cycle about himself and trans athletes in woman's sports or gas stoves.
People know who Biden is, and Biden knows to focus on what the electorate actually cares about, which means the economy is issue #1 and the important "culture war" issue is abortion.
My gut feeling is even though Josh is correct about the overlapping themes, the message just won’t have the same ring in today’s environment (social media, criticism from right and left, etc.). But Biden should still pound it into voters’ heads. He will very unlikely win in a landslide, even if it’s Trump, but a win is a win, regardless of how close it is. However, a solid victory over Trump and the toxic brand of Trumpism would be a big triumph and very, very emotionally satisfying.
I'm pretty sure if we had seen numbers as good as 3.7% unemployment coupled with 4% inflation during the Reagan administration, it would have been hailed as a success of historic proportions.
I’m old enough to remember 84, and one big difference is that back then the media bought in to the whole Morning in America narrative, but that’s not happening now, at least not yet. Every time you turn on the news, even mainstream media, all you hear is gloom and doom on the economy and inflation. For a year they have been predicting a recession to begin any time now, but it hasn’t happened yet, and it’s looking like we may even get a soft landing. However, the media doesn’t show any sign of acknowledging that. Of course in 1984 there was no internet or social media, and most importantly, no Fox News.
I think this sums up the messaging problem well. The current media is much more focused on covering the narrative that they believe the public is looking for, not the one politicians are trying to shape. (A good example is the Right's desire to portray Biden as incompetent/senile, which no one in the mainstream is willing to seriously run with. They'll talk age, but they won't conclude it prevents him from doing the job.)
I wouldn't argue that prevents Biden from running with this message, and I do think it would be wise one to hammer home, but don't expect the media to carry the water in the same manner as several decades ago.
Next fall, voters won't care very much about the state of the economy in the summer of 2023.
Predictions about the economy a year plus from now are guesses, but my guess is that things will be worse not better. Don't underestimate the impact of all the Covid era assistance programs sunsetting or the bite of the rise in interest rates. As well, we may be in the midst of a financial asset bubble, and if so and if it pops before the election, that will be a huge headwind.
I think Biden will likely win, but as a "better than the alternative" not necessarily due to the strength of the economy.
Yeah. I don't know the numbers, but I remember June 2019 seeming pretty good economy-wise (except where it wasn't good, of course). We had the "exogenous shock" of covid in 2020 that overturned things and possibly was responsible for Trump losing.
Josh, it would appear that Biden is following your advice with his Bidenomics version of Morning in America. I'm still not convinced it will be successful for the reasons I stated before, but I would be a lot happier if Biden followed your advice on politics all the time. So maybe this is the first step to Barro for Chief of Staff.
I've been thinking about this post for a while and have collected my thoughts. I don't think this rhetoric would work. The first problem is that I don't think Biden really ran on making the economy better as a main focus. Yes, unemployment was at 6.7% in November of 202 but prior to COVID it was at 3.5%. I think there was a priced-in expectation that unemployment would decrease as the pandemic wound down.
Second is inflation. When Reagan ran in 1980, inflation was the number one issue for voters and it was down substantially by 1984. The number one issue for the Biden campaign was not being named Donald Trump (which he admirably succeeded on). In 2020, inflation wasn't an issue. I don't think voters will give as much credit to Biden for lowering but-still-higher inflation when all of the inflation was on his watch.
Third, and I think most important, is consumer sentiment. In November of 1980, the consumer sentiment index was 76.7, up from that summer where it was as low as 51.7. By 1984, the consumer sentiment index was anywhere from 95.5 to 101. People thought the economy was getting better. In contrast, consumer sentiment was at 76.9 in November of 2020 and currently sits at 59.2.
The "Morning in America" framing worked because that's how the public was viewing the economy (regardless of what metrics you point to or what Reagan's opponents said). The framing doesn't work, even if it was 100% correct, if the consumers/voters aren't in the mindset to buy it. And right now, I don't think the consumers/voters are in that mindset.
IMO: Biden could use a “ Sister Souljah” moment, against the left on some of the identity stuff. He needs something, to appeal to Working class men, that he’s still “Middle class Joe”. He seems unwilling or unable so far.
The left really is Biden’s Achilles heel. Their determined pessimism and inability to feel happiness means that the message suggested in this post will be hit from both right and left, while Reagan just had to deal with opposition to his left. It will be Ilhan Omar and Jamaal Bowman telling America that Biden is out of touch if he says anything good about the economy, Trump just has to put a microphone in front of them and mention he agrees. Biden should recognize the left will never be happy and do what he can to throw them under the bus before they do the same to him
I don't think Biden really needs to pick more fights than he does. Everybody knows that he is different from the far left, that is why he is so much less hated than his recent predecessors and why Republicans have embraced their current cope strategy of saying Biden is senile and manipulated by his aids. Kamala Harris is the one who should pick a fight or two with the left on gender and policing.
That said, while I think that it is reasonable for Democrats to worry about a Ralph Nader figure, I bet RFK appeals to 2016 Sanders voters more than Elizabeth Warren or AOC does. Thinking that the progressive non-profit sphere represents left-leaning voters who might rebel against the party is like thinking Tea Party voters were clamoring for the Paul Ryan agenda, when in fact they wanted somebody like Trump.
The biggest advantage of being an incumbent is not having to fight people on your own side and then have to waste time during the general to mend wounds. Biden should run a completely forward looking campaign, reminding people of his successes, and leaving his left flank alone. The split in Congress helps because he doesn’t have to worry about pointless messaging bills he needs to act on or speak about.
He has a 35 percent approval rating. He may win by default, because he’s not Trump, but its still awful. If “ People know who Biden is” they’re not to thrilled.
There's no such thing as winning the presidency by default. Trump is a formidable candidate, most of the Democrats who had a chance at being nominated would probably have lost to him. Bernie Sanders or Gavin Newsom or Kamala Harris would probably lose to Trump this time around, but instead Biden stands a good chance of beating him second time.
Biden also did exceptionally well in the midterms and has gotten a lot done in office with small majorities. I wish that Biden personally and Democrats in general were doing better, but he really isn't the problem.
I respectfully disagree. Many who voted Democrat in the midterms, ( who might otherwise vote Republican) were voting against the GOP not for Biden. Still: a win is a win, but it does explain his consistent low poll numbers, that only seem to be getting worse. A 1/2 way sane opposition party, could easily win in 2024. Republicans are completely unhinged, and almost guaranteed to lose another winnable election.
I worry you are right & that I’m too confident about Biden’s low poll numbers, but I definitely don’t share your confidence that the Republicans are about to blow a winnable election. People similar to Trump have been winning big all over the democratic world for decades, from India to Brazil to Italy to (lol) Toronto. The “sane” opposition often does a bad job of competing with people like Trump and can’t understand why. Biden beat the crazy Democrats in 2020 and then beat Trump. If the “sane” Republicans were such great shakes, they’d be running the country. At the very least they could have gotten rid of Trump *after he lost.* “Sane” Republican voters like my relatives in Westchester have trouble accepting that they are now Biden Democrats, but their votes for Biden count as much as anybody else’s. I suspect the electorally important undecided voters are Perot-Sanders types who may be tempted by RFK.
Yeah there's just no good reason for Biden to make a little news cycle about himself and trans athletes in woman's sports or gas stoves.
People know who Biden is, and Biden knows to focus on what the electorate actually cares about, which means the economy is issue #1 and the important "culture war" issue is abortion.
My gut feeling is even though Josh is correct about the overlapping themes, the message just won’t have the same ring in today’s environment (social media, criticism from right and left, etc.). But Biden should still pound it into voters’ heads. He will very unlikely win in a landslide, even if it’s Trump, but a win is a win, regardless of how close it is. However, a solid victory over Trump and the toxic brand of Trumpism would be a big triumph and very, very emotionally satisfying.
Another key factor I would suggest is that Reagan did not face the social media onslaught that Biden does.
Seems much easier for both sides to create & maintain fear today than 40 years ago.
That's a tough one to overcome with any rational messaging.
The Fear Banter just keep coming.
Understanding Biden is the FAR better choice of the two we will probably get, are these really the best choices the country can offer?
I'm pretty sure if we had seen numbers as good as 3.7% unemployment coupled with 4% inflation during the Reagan administration, it would have been hailed as a success of historic proportions.
I’m old enough to remember 84, and one big difference is that back then the media bought in to the whole Morning in America narrative, but that’s not happening now, at least not yet. Every time you turn on the news, even mainstream media, all you hear is gloom and doom on the economy and inflation. For a year they have been predicting a recession to begin any time now, but it hasn’t happened yet, and it’s looking like we may even get a soft landing. However, the media doesn’t show any sign of acknowledging that. Of course in 1984 there was no internet or social media, and most importantly, no Fox News.
I think this sums up the messaging problem well. The current media is much more focused on covering the narrative that they believe the public is looking for, not the one politicians are trying to shape. (A good example is the Right's desire to portray Biden as incompetent/senile, which no one in the mainstream is willing to seriously run with. They'll talk age, but they won't conclude it prevents him from doing the job.)
I wouldn't argue that prevents Biden from running with this message, and I do think it would be wise one to hammer home, but don't expect the media to carry the water in the same manner as several decades ago.
Next fall, voters won't care very much about the state of the economy in the summer of 2023.
Predictions about the economy a year plus from now are guesses, but my guess is that things will be worse not better. Don't underestimate the impact of all the Covid era assistance programs sunsetting or the bite of the rise in interest rates. As well, we may be in the midst of a financial asset bubble, and if so and if it pops before the election, that will be a huge headwind.
I think Biden will likely win, but as a "better than the alternative" not necessarily due to the strength of the economy.
Yeah. I don't know the numbers, but I remember June 2019 seeming pretty good economy-wise (except where it wasn't good, of course). We had the "exogenous shock" of covid in 2020 that overturned things and possibly was responsible for Trump losing.
What will happen in 2024? None of us knows.
Josh, it would appear that Biden is following your advice with his Bidenomics version of Morning in America. I'm still not convinced it will be successful for the reasons I stated before, but I would be a lot happier if Biden followed your advice on politics all the time. So maybe this is the first step to Barro for Chief of Staff.
Josh,
I've been thinking about this post for a while and have collected my thoughts. I don't think this rhetoric would work. The first problem is that I don't think Biden really ran on making the economy better as a main focus. Yes, unemployment was at 6.7% in November of 202 but prior to COVID it was at 3.5%. I think there was a priced-in expectation that unemployment would decrease as the pandemic wound down.
Second is inflation. When Reagan ran in 1980, inflation was the number one issue for voters and it was down substantially by 1984. The number one issue for the Biden campaign was not being named Donald Trump (which he admirably succeeded on). In 2020, inflation wasn't an issue. I don't think voters will give as much credit to Biden for lowering but-still-higher inflation when all of the inflation was on his watch.
Third, and I think most important, is consumer sentiment. In November of 1980, the consumer sentiment index was 76.7, up from that summer where it was as low as 51.7. By 1984, the consumer sentiment index was anywhere from 95.5 to 101. People thought the economy was getting better. In contrast, consumer sentiment was at 76.9 in November of 2020 and currently sits at 59.2.
The "Morning in America" framing worked because that's how the public was viewing the economy (regardless of what metrics you point to or what Reagan's opponents said). The framing doesn't work, even if it was 100% correct, if the consumers/voters aren't in the mindset to buy it. And right now, I don't think the consumers/voters are in that mindset.
Great piece!