I think the market anticipated the tariffs to be much more moderate and targeted to specific countries/sectors. 10% was swirling around, but ended up being the base rate and many more countries were involved for no discernable reason. I think there was also some sentiment that this could be a continued negotiation tactic that would be te…
I think the market anticipated the tariffs to be much more moderate and targeted to specific countries/sectors. 10% was swirling around, but ended up being the base rate and many more countries were involved for no discernable reason. I think there was also some sentiment that this could be a continued negotiation tactic that would be temporary and removed over the course of the next few months. Now there are more indications that he is very much committed to this "strategy" long term. Israel removing tariffs ahead of the announcement and still be subjected to a 17% penalty is pretty compelling proof that it doesn't really matter what concessions these countries make.
This moment has been kind of clarifying as to the "How could Trump win" conversation. It seems really clear that tons of people internalized the idea that a lot of the warnings about the dangers of Trump was hyperventilating from over zealous libs and never Trumpers.
So as Josh notes, 2016 happens, dire warnings occur, all sorts of lib freakout (including me) occurs, a lot of the worst warnings don't come to pass even though he says and does plenty of crazy stuff so lots of normies conclude that most of the worst stuff is dare I say "fake news".
Think it also kind of speaks highly of various cabinet members and advisors around Trump the first term because it turns out as bad as he was they really were preventing a lot of the worst stuff from happening behind the scenes.
I feel like a north star for me is John Bolton as almost an avatar of too many of his supporters and even maybe swing voters. It seems as though based on the numerous interviews he did on Fox pre 2018 that he totally bought the narrative that all of these warnings about Trump was lib exaggeration and even dare I say, "a witch hunt". And then he gets the White House and discovers it's even worse than Libs and Never Trumpers say it is.
I think to me it speaks to how much of Trump's success is downstream from Fox and right wing media's ability to set the narrative; even if there actual news numbers are low they clearly have an ability to sway public opinion through 2nd and 3rd order effects.
I think the market anticipated the tariffs to be much more moderate and targeted to specific countries/sectors. 10% was swirling around, but ended up being the base rate and many more countries were involved for no discernable reason. I think there was also some sentiment that this could be a continued negotiation tactic that would be temporary and removed over the course of the next few months. Now there are more indications that he is very much committed to this "strategy" long term. Israel removing tariffs ahead of the announcement and still be subjected to a 17% penalty is pretty compelling proof that it doesn't really matter what concessions these countries make.
This moment has been kind of clarifying as to the "How could Trump win" conversation. It seems really clear that tons of people internalized the idea that a lot of the warnings about the dangers of Trump was hyperventilating from over zealous libs and never Trumpers.
So as Josh notes, 2016 happens, dire warnings occur, all sorts of lib freakout (including me) occurs, a lot of the worst warnings don't come to pass even though he says and does plenty of crazy stuff so lots of normies conclude that most of the worst stuff is dare I say "fake news".
Think it also kind of speaks highly of various cabinet members and advisors around Trump the first term because it turns out as bad as he was they really were preventing a lot of the worst stuff from happening behind the scenes.
I feel like a north star for me is John Bolton as almost an avatar of too many of his supporters and even maybe swing voters. It seems as though based on the numerous interviews he did on Fox pre 2018 that he totally bought the narrative that all of these warnings about Trump was lib exaggeration and even dare I say, "a witch hunt". And then he gets the White House and discovers it's even worse than Libs and Never Trumpers say it is.
I think to me it speaks to how much of Trump's success is downstream from Fox and right wing media's ability to set the narrative; even if there actual news numbers are low they clearly have an ability to sway public opinion through 2nd and 3rd order effects.