I think the biggest and most obvious problem is that DeSantis dropped the best political operative in Florida: Susie Wiles helped Ron DeSantis become governor of Florida, but he turned against her and banished her from his orbit. She rejoined with Trump (whom she helped win in 2016). Ever since Wiles was fired (due, it seems, to DeSantis's extraordinary ego and the dislike that his wife seemed to have for Wiles), his campaign has headed south.
Great point. Reading the NYT profile on Wiles and the Politico piece about his staff turnover (see link below) I get the impression that DeSantis and his wife get jealous/insecure when a subordinate says or does something good that they themselves didn’t get credit for. Good bosses praise staff members for being effective and helping out the organization but insecure ones punish them for stealing the spotlight.
Regarding how RDS won by such a huge margin in 2022, I’d add two more points.
First, DeSantis likely benefited from a general shift rightward of the median FL voter. I’d say FL is probably an R+5 state at this point. Again, not enough to explain a 20 point victory but probably a contributing factor.
Second, I’d expand on your point regarding the stimulus and note that just about every governor has an approval rating above 50% with the notable exception of Katie Hobbs*. There are a whole lot governors who got to avoid hard choices in 2022. Surprise, surprise, lots of spending pared with no tax increases are popular with the voting public.
* this likely has to do with Kari Lake revealing herself to be “true believer” Trump lunatic and still refusing to concede that Hobbs actually won. Makes me look back at Lake laughing at Paul Pelosi being brutally attacked and think that laugh might have been genuine in its callousness. Also, it disturbingly shows it’s in the political self interest for GOP politicians to not accept general election outcomes, at least when it comes to keeping base support even it is damaging in a general.
I think DeSantis did so well in his re-election due to all the factors Josh mentioned, not some. He’s was great with riling up the base. He opposed Covid restrictions, got too much federal aid so he could raise teacher pay and cut taxes, and most of all the Democratic Party down here is indeed hapless (made some recent gains, though). So he’s savvy, but it’s clearly showing that this is his first presidential campaign. His insular nature and struggle to empathize is coming back to bite him. It’s seems like he and Casey are also major control freaks, and you just can’t run a presidential campaign like that. I think his lack of empathy helps him be the culture warrior he is and do some of the reprehensible things he’s done (see using vulnerable migrants in Texas as political pawns), but it’s manifesting as a weakness now as he tries to connect with voters across the country. If he does indeed lose, he will have deserved it as far as I’m concerned.
Watching Trump eviscerate DeSantis in the campaign has finally helped me understand the appeal of 2016 Trump for people who hated Hillary. This primary is over and I'm just going to enjoy watching DeSantis burn.
I don't like DeSantis and sort of share your sentiment, but there is something weird about people angry at DeSantis (who is losing to the worse and also more electable Trump), enthusiastic about the talented but useless Christie, vaguely unhappy with Biden and fantasizing lamely about alternatives...
It is like we are so tired of thinking about Donald Trump we can't focus on the fact that he stands a good chance of winning again and want to talk about the election while focusing on a more manageable subject.
Totally get it and I was also agnostic on DeSantis for a long time but when he started doing dumb over the top stuff to move his campaign to the right it was clear he didn’t understand the assignment. Totally get your point on not wanting orange man bad part two but DeSantis is not the guy to take him on and best we figure that out now before it’s too late!
So if someone is going to have a field day with him, might as well be Christie, he is by far the best debater in the field and has certainly made debates unpleasant for others.
DeSantis has done a poor job, but when you are losing it always looks like you are doing a poor job. I think it is becoming clear that the moment for Republicans to get rid of Trump was the second impeachment. In retrospect the idea of beating him in a primary was always a huge long shot.
If you buy the Christie case against Trump, you are a Biden Republican. If you don't, why settle for the imitation? Plus no Republican ever had the beginning of a plan for how to get him to concede if he lost. The guy to take out Donald Trump is Joe Biden.
I think the biggest and most obvious problem is that DeSantis dropped the best political operative in Florida: Susie Wiles helped Ron DeSantis become governor of Florida, but he turned against her and banished her from his orbit. She rejoined with Trump (whom she helped win in 2016). Ever since Wiles was fired (due, it seems, to DeSantis's extraordinary ego and the dislike that his wife seemed to have for Wiles), his campaign has headed south.
Great point. Reading the NYT profile on Wiles and the Politico piece about his staff turnover (see link below) I get the impression that DeSantis and his wife get jealous/insecure when a subordinate says or does something good that they themselves didn’t get credit for. Good bosses praise staff members for being effective and helping out the organization but insecure ones punish them for stealing the spotlight.
https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2021/05/07/scarred-desantis-staffers-form-a-support-group-492763
Podcast for paying subscribers of Andrew Sullivan.
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The very serious podcast should just rebrand to "bi-annual cocktail discussions with Peter Suderman"
Regarding how RDS won by such a huge margin in 2022, I’d add two more points.
First, DeSantis likely benefited from a general shift rightward of the median FL voter. I’d say FL is probably an R+5 state at this point. Again, not enough to explain a 20 point victory but probably a contributing factor.
Second, I’d expand on your point regarding the stimulus and note that just about every governor has an approval rating above 50% with the notable exception of Katie Hobbs*. There are a whole lot governors who got to avoid hard choices in 2022. Surprise, surprise, lots of spending pared with no tax increases are popular with the voting public.
* this likely has to do with Kari Lake revealing herself to be “true believer” Trump lunatic and still refusing to concede that Hobbs actually won. Makes me look back at Lake laughing at Paul Pelosi being brutally attacked and think that laugh might have been genuine in its callousness. Also, it disturbingly shows it’s in the political self interest for GOP politicians to not accept general election outcomes, at least when it comes to keeping base support even it is damaging in a general.
I think DeSantis did so well in his re-election due to all the factors Josh mentioned, not some. He’s was great with riling up the base. He opposed Covid restrictions, got too much federal aid so he could raise teacher pay and cut taxes, and most of all the Democratic Party down here is indeed hapless (made some recent gains, though). So he’s savvy, but it’s clearly showing that this is his first presidential campaign. His insular nature and struggle to empathize is coming back to bite him. It’s seems like he and Casey are also major control freaks, and you just can’t run a presidential campaign like that. I think his lack of empathy helps him be the culture warrior he is and do some of the reprehensible things he’s done (see using vulnerable migrants in Texas as political pawns), but it’s manifesting as a weakness now as he tries to connect with voters across the country. If he does indeed lose, he will have deserved it as far as I’m concerned.
Watching Trump eviscerate DeSantis in the campaign has finally helped me understand the appeal of 2016 Trump for people who hated Hillary. This primary is over and I'm just going to enjoy watching DeSantis burn.
I honestly think Christie is going to eat DeSantis for dinner at the debate and I have to say, I’m here for it!
I don't like DeSantis and sort of share your sentiment, but there is something weird about people angry at DeSantis (who is losing to the worse and also more electable Trump), enthusiastic about the talented but useless Christie, vaguely unhappy with Biden and fantasizing lamely about alternatives...
It is like we are so tired of thinking about Donald Trump we can't focus on the fact that he stands a good chance of winning again and want to talk about the election while focusing on a more manageable subject.
Totally get it and I was also agnostic on DeSantis for a long time but when he started doing dumb over the top stuff to move his campaign to the right it was clear he didn’t understand the assignment. Totally get your point on not wanting orange man bad part two but DeSantis is not the guy to take him on and best we figure that out now before it’s too late!
So if someone is going to have a field day with him, might as well be Christie, he is by far the best debater in the field and has certainly made debates unpleasant for others.
DeSantis has done a poor job, but when you are losing it always looks like you are doing a poor job. I think it is becoming clear that the moment for Republicans to get rid of Trump was the second impeachment. In retrospect the idea of beating him in a primary was always a huge long shot.
If you buy the Christie case against Trump, you are a Biden Republican. If you don't, why settle for the imitation? Plus no Republican ever had the beginning of a plan for how to get him to concede if he lost. The guy to take out Donald Trump is Joe Biden.
Good article, I learned something new.
Is Roe a DeSantis supporter or is he just grifting off of DeSantis' 15 minutes of fame?