The trade war, an indiscriminate effort to shrink the federal workforce, and the haphazard stoppage of duly-appropriated payments are likely to hurt the US economically and the president politically.
Loyal Ivan Fyodorovich comment readers will know that I am a level headed non-woke moderate, and also an American expat in Canada. I am now fully and bitterly Canadian. We've allowed our whole economy to develop to be integrated with the US on the assumption that the US honours trade treaties it signed, and now he wants to stab us in the back, either because he thinks he can milk us with tariffs or because he thinks our sense of national identity is so weak that we will prefer statehood to a deep recession. Violating a trade treaty to cause an economic crisis to force annexation is really evil! I think I speak for most Canadians when I say it feels like Canada is under attack right now, and my feelings about the US are correspondingly hostile. Even if this turns out to be bizarre theatre, things will never be the same between the two countries.
I'm sure it's no consolation, but if around 50 percent of us Americans could elect to join Canada as new provinces right now, we would.
And the great irony is that Trump is violating the treaty HE negotiated after insisting that NAFTA was such a raw deal and only he could negotiate the perfect deal.
My aunt who works at the VA as a doctor got the email. She specifically deals with end of life care for veterans. She’s not the kind of person who would want to get involved in the politics, but this could be a massive scandal if someone wanted to make it one.
I just hope that Republican constituents get upset over the stupidest possible thing, e.g., whatever the Trump administration equivalent of trying to enforce pronouns turns out to be, before they carelessly cause part of the government to collapse and something truly catastrophic happens.
At the same time, I hope the damage Trump is causing will not be so gradual that people don't associate it with him this time around. Trump left the economy in shambles in 2020, but voters only remembered the earlier years of his administration in which Trump was coasting on economy that Obama rescued from the Great Recession caused by Bush. This kind of false correlation does not lead to wise electoral choices.
Go ahead and be an alarmist - someone needs to scream beside me. Americans have no IDEA what they have unleashed by voting Trump back into the presidency. As Americans continue to "normalize" Trump using experiences learned in a law-and-order society - YOU - the voters - have unleashed a psychotic monster. In this country, the voters are held responsible for their political leaders.
From the Supreme Court to the daily freedoms of people on the streets of America, please know that OUR DEMOCRACY IS already is gone and so is any realm of logic, laws, and order. When President Biden left the White House, so did any semblance or outward appearance of the United States of America - a democratic nation.
Nancy Pelosi pushed and marginalized President Biden to step down and hand the 2024 political race to Harris - an intelligent, experienced, attractive woman with a Jewish husband. This country was not ready for that combination and wanted a “good ole boy” in the White House. His criminality was ignored. His desire to be a dictator was ignored. His relationship with Vladimir Putin was unknown and disregarded.
Steven Beschloss wrote today on Substack (February 3, 2025 “Donald Trump stood in the East Room of our White House Wednesday describing his demand that Colombia take back its refugees from the United States. “You’re going to take them. You’re going to like it, too,” he said. Supporters in the room laughed and clapped. This is not just the aggressive attitude of a bully. This is the disgusting thinking of an abuser, a sadist or even a rapist. His words were bad enough, but the amusement he elicited illustrates the reality that this sociopathic man thinks he can say or do whatever he wants without consequence. You can see why: With a Supreme Court that handed him near-total immunity, his delusion of a massive victory providing him a broad mandate, and a growing gallery of henchman that will satisfy his reckless hunger for retribution and destruction, he’s free.” And since his previous crimes are now a pile of burned up ashes, he will never be held responsible for rape, for his felony, or for his treasonous acts.
Today, USAID was closed. It’s 10,235 employees (as of 2016, www.state.gov/USAID)) are out of work, and the $50 million-dollar annual budget is now more money for Trump’s administration to “play out his darkest fantasies.” USAID (The United States Agency for International Development) is the only branch of government channeling assistance to Ukraine, to Gaza, and to other struggling and starving people around the world.
Today, the DOW was down 600 points, and more than 10,000 (USAID) Americans are out of work - some of them stranded in other countries.
Today, tariffs are in effect against goods from Mexico, Canada, and China. Prices will soar for a long list of consumer goods - including the price of gas. In a few short weeks, Trump has alienated both our border neighbors and our largest trading partner.
NATO is most likely next on his hit list. In 2020, Congress passed the National Defense Authorization Act, which sets funding for the U.S. military. “Section 1250A specifics that the president cannot unilaterally withdraw American from NATO without an act of Congress, or unless two-thirds of the Senate concur.” (Business Insider, Jan. 18, 2025) “The Constitution specifies that the president has the power to negotiate treaties, it doesn’t say whether he has the power to break them.” (Ibid) There I go again, attempting to “normalize Donald Trump".” I am sure that the Constitution or the recently ratified Section 1250A of the Defense Authorization Act will NOT make one bit of difference to Donald Trump.
As a reminder, a major goal of Vladimir Putin as written in The Foundations of Geopolitics published in 1997, is the destruction of NATO. This organization was created in 1947 to protect the security and freedom of its member nations. Well guess what folks, the security and freedoms of the United States has been compromised by Trump who sold his soul and our country to Vladimir Putin when he went to Russia and pulled down his pants to have sex with a Russian girl. In Russia, prostitution is legal and is a massively organized trade generating millions of dollars of black cash, which in turn is then used to funnel black cash into other countries to hurt their economies. Every prostitute on the streets of Moscow works for the KGB or the FSB. Some file reports every Friday along with accompanying photos of western men for the purpose of bribes. Every hotel room in Moscow where a foreigner stays - including Donald Trump - has cameras and listening devices. It would be foolish to believe that Trump has not been compromised and is now working as a Russian asset. The Trumpers in our nation are in denial, nor are they capable of thinking outside of the four walls of the U.S. The process of Trump’s destruction of our country and our government is a mirror image of how Hitler gained control of Germany 100 years ago.
Over a period of about twenty years, I lived and worked in six dictator-led or communist countries - mostly Russia. In this process my youngest two children attended a Moscow school, and I became Russianized. This means that I learned to think, look like, speak, and behave like any other Russian on the streets. NOW, whether the average Americans knows this or not, a Russian is in control of our country.
Impulsivity and poor foresight are bound to cause Donald Trump problems, and his character is not conducive to dialing back either. I think it is only a matter of time before this behavior starts to bite him.
I agree that he's made several miscalculations already but I'm still not convinced that most of these tariffs aren't just a negotiation tactic. The Mexico ones have already been postponed by a month with the promise that Mexico will send extra national guard will beef up the border. He's speaking with Trudeau again later this afternoon, so there could be additional bargaining to delay those. The market reacted extremely negatively to the tariffs and it will likely get worse if they actually go into effect. Trump is very sensitive to the stock market. I'm not convinced he'll be willing to stand firm on this policy if the market keeps getting pounded.
I think it's pretty poor negotiation strategy, especially in the long-term. Threatening divorce to get your spouse to see the movie you want might work, but it's toxic for a relationship.
But as a lame-duck president who clearly cares more about himself than future country or party, does that matter? Unless it comes back to bite him in the next few years, I don't think it's a motivator, and might even pull the other way. If his use weakens the tactic for a future leader, maybe that just makes him look better.
Good comparison Seth. He has soured our country’s relationship with both Canada and Mexico - the only countries that we share a border. When Americans pack and attempt to flee the U.S. due to Trump - they may have no where to go.
> The Mexico ones have already been postponed by a month with the promise that Mexico will send extra national guard will beef up the border
But also that the US would do more to stop guns entering Mexico, which just sounds like the kind of thing that could have been negotiated without the tariff threat. In other words, there were concessions on both sides, and nothing really changed.
Wow, so fascinating -- thanks! I had been wondering if Musk's hatred of USAID could be due to him not viewing saving Black African lives as a good thing. Now I wonder if it goes back even farther than that.
The mere fact of threatening tariffs causes uncertainty which leads to economic harm. The 'delay' which was achieved by receiving nothing in return is the worst of both worlds as companies will have no choice but to plan as if they were going to be reimplemented in 30 days.
Yeah we will see where we will be in a month. Trump got no concessions on people crossing over the border. Unpredictability is not good but have to wonder how him backstabbing USMCA will affect US' credibility across the world. Prices will now go up because of the uncertainty. He says he wants to annex Canada and has shown no other motive. Fentanyl from Canadian side is very very little.
Good read. I agree with you that Trump should get the blame for failures, but the blame for plans gone awry never falls on Trump. 40% of America will believe his deflections.
I'm pretty much an open borders ideologue, but I still like consistency, so it kind of annoys me to hear people who would make the case that immigration does not depress wages of native workers in one situation turn around and try to claim that deportations are going to raise labor costs and prices.
The reason that immigration doesn't lower wages is because immigrants are also consumers. Deporting immigrants would mean fewer consumers which should balance out the decrease in the labor force.
It's been interesting that no one seems to be talking about the most significant economic pressure from high immigration: housing prices. It's certainly been a factor here the past few years (exacerbated by the hangover in homebuilding following the great recession of course).
Canada is a good example too. They have high rates of legal immigration, but their housing policy and construction has not kept up, making prices very high.
Unfortunately regardless of red or blue, NIMBYs are gonna NIMBY. California is a good example (with the layers of environmental regulation added, and often used as a weapon by NIMBYs).
Loyal Ivan Fyodorovich comment readers will know that I am a level headed non-woke moderate, and also an American expat in Canada. I am now fully and bitterly Canadian. We've allowed our whole economy to develop to be integrated with the US on the assumption that the US honours trade treaties it signed, and now he wants to stab us in the back, either because he thinks he can milk us with tariffs or because he thinks our sense of national identity is so weak that we will prefer statehood to a deep recession. Violating a trade treaty to cause an economic crisis to force annexation is really evil! I think I speak for most Canadians when I say it feels like Canada is under attack right now, and my feelings about the US are correspondingly hostile. Even if this turns out to be bizarre theatre, things will never be the same between the two countries.
I'm sure it's no consolation, but if around 50 percent of us Americans could elect to join Canada as new provinces right now, we would.
And the great irony is that Trump is violating the treaty HE negotiated after insisting that NAFTA was such a raw deal and only he could negotiate the perfect deal.
Seriously, stop trying to analyze Trump as if he was a rational human being or a competent leader. He's not.
My aunt who works at the VA as a doctor got the email. She specifically deals with end of life care for veterans. She’s not the kind of person who would want to get involved in the politics, but this could be a massive scandal if someone wanted to make it one.
I just hope that Republican constituents get upset over the stupidest possible thing, e.g., whatever the Trump administration equivalent of trying to enforce pronouns turns out to be, before they carelessly cause part of the government to collapse and something truly catastrophic happens.
At the same time, I hope the damage Trump is causing will not be so gradual that people don't associate it with him this time around. Trump left the economy in shambles in 2020, but voters only remembered the earlier years of his administration in which Trump was coasting on economy that Obama rescued from the Great Recession caused by Bush. This kind of false correlation does not lead to wise electoral choices.
Go ahead and be an alarmist - someone needs to scream beside me. Americans have no IDEA what they have unleashed by voting Trump back into the presidency. As Americans continue to "normalize" Trump using experiences learned in a law-and-order society - YOU - the voters - have unleashed a psychotic monster. In this country, the voters are held responsible for their political leaders.
From the Supreme Court to the daily freedoms of people on the streets of America, please know that OUR DEMOCRACY IS already is gone and so is any realm of logic, laws, and order. When President Biden left the White House, so did any semblance or outward appearance of the United States of America - a democratic nation.
Nancy Pelosi pushed and marginalized President Biden to step down and hand the 2024 political race to Harris - an intelligent, experienced, attractive woman with a Jewish husband. This country was not ready for that combination and wanted a “good ole boy” in the White House. His criminality was ignored. His desire to be a dictator was ignored. His relationship with Vladimir Putin was unknown and disregarded.
Steven Beschloss wrote today on Substack (February 3, 2025 “Donald Trump stood in the East Room of our White House Wednesday describing his demand that Colombia take back its refugees from the United States. “You’re going to take them. You’re going to like it, too,” he said. Supporters in the room laughed and clapped. This is not just the aggressive attitude of a bully. This is the disgusting thinking of an abuser, a sadist or even a rapist. His words were bad enough, but the amusement he elicited illustrates the reality that this sociopathic man thinks he can say or do whatever he wants without consequence. You can see why: With a Supreme Court that handed him near-total immunity, his delusion of a massive victory providing him a broad mandate, and a growing gallery of henchman that will satisfy his reckless hunger for retribution and destruction, he’s free.” And since his previous crimes are now a pile of burned up ashes, he will never be held responsible for rape, for his felony, or for his treasonous acts.
Today, USAID was closed. It’s 10,235 employees (as of 2016, www.state.gov/USAID)) are out of work, and the $50 million-dollar annual budget is now more money for Trump’s administration to “play out his darkest fantasies.” USAID (The United States Agency for International Development) is the only branch of government channeling assistance to Ukraine, to Gaza, and to other struggling and starving people around the world.
Today, the DOW was down 600 points, and more than 10,000 (USAID) Americans are out of work - some of them stranded in other countries.
Today, tariffs are in effect against goods from Mexico, Canada, and China. Prices will soar for a long list of consumer goods - including the price of gas. In a few short weeks, Trump has alienated both our border neighbors and our largest trading partner.
NATO is most likely next on his hit list. In 2020, Congress passed the National Defense Authorization Act, which sets funding for the U.S. military. “Section 1250A specifics that the president cannot unilaterally withdraw American from NATO without an act of Congress, or unless two-thirds of the Senate concur.” (Business Insider, Jan. 18, 2025) “The Constitution specifies that the president has the power to negotiate treaties, it doesn’t say whether he has the power to break them.” (Ibid) There I go again, attempting to “normalize Donald Trump".” I am sure that the Constitution or the recently ratified Section 1250A of the Defense Authorization Act will NOT make one bit of difference to Donald Trump.
As a reminder, a major goal of Vladimir Putin as written in The Foundations of Geopolitics published in 1997, is the destruction of NATO. This organization was created in 1947 to protect the security and freedom of its member nations. Well guess what folks, the security and freedoms of the United States has been compromised by Trump who sold his soul and our country to Vladimir Putin when he went to Russia and pulled down his pants to have sex with a Russian girl. In Russia, prostitution is legal and is a massively organized trade generating millions of dollars of black cash, which in turn is then used to funnel black cash into other countries to hurt their economies. Every prostitute on the streets of Moscow works for the KGB or the FSB. Some file reports every Friday along with accompanying photos of western men for the purpose of bribes. Every hotel room in Moscow where a foreigner stays - including Donald Trump - has cameras and listening devices. It would be foolish to believe that Trump has not been compromised and is now working as a Russian asset. The Trumpers in our nation are in denial, nor are they capable of thinking outside of the four walls of the U.S. The process of Trump’s destruction of our country and our government is a mirror image of how Hitler gained control of Germany 100 years ago.
Over a period of about twenty years, I lived and worked in six dictator-led or communist countries - mostly Russia. In this process my youngest two children attended a Moscow school, and I became Russianized. This means that I learned to think, look like, speak, and behave like any other Russian on the streets. NOW, whether the average Americans knows this or not, a Russian is in control of our country.
Impulsivity and poor foresight are bound to cause Donald Trump problems, and his character is not conducive to dialing back either. I think it is only a matter of time before this behavior starts to bite him.
I agree that he's made several miscalculations already but I'm still not convinced that most of these tariffs aren't just a negotiation tactic. The Mexico ones have already been postponed by a month with the promise that Mexico will send extra national guard will beef up the border. He's speaking with Trudeau again later this afternoon, so there could be additional bargaining to delay those. The market reacted extremely negatively to the tariffs and it will likely get worse if they actually go into effect. Trump is very sensitive to the stock market. I'm not convinced he'll be willing to stand firm on this policy if the market keeps getting pounded.
It's going to be interesting to see what happens.
I think it's pretty poor negotiation strategy, especially in the long-term. Threatening divorce to get your spouse to see the movie you want might work, but it's toxic for a relationship.
I agree. You also can't continuously play that same card without people eventually realizing it's a hollow threat. I think he naively thinks he can.
But as a lame-duck president who clearly cares more about himself than future country or party, does that matter? Unless it comes back to bite him in the next few years, I don't think it's a motivator, and might even pull the other way. If his use weakens the tactic for a future leader, maybe that just makes him look better.
Good comparison Seth. He has soured our country’s relationship with both Canada and Mexico - the only countries that we share a border. When Americans pack and attempt to flee the U.S. due to Trump - they may have no where to go.
This might be my favorite analogy for Trump's negotiation style.
> The Mexico ones have already been postponed by a month with the promise that Mexico will send extra national guard will beef up the border
But also that the US would do more to stop guns entering Mexico, which just sounds like the kind of thing that could have been negotiated without the tariff threat. In other words, there were concessions on both sides, and nothing really changed.
Just absolute idiocy from Trump.
Yeah USAID helped with ending of Apartheid in South Africa. https://2012-2017.usaid.gov/news-information/frontlines/50-years-and-food-security/mission-south-africa.
Anyway, I thought congress was going to start a reconciliation/budget fight ? Whatever happened to that.
Wow, so fascinating -- thanks! I had been wondering if Musk's hatred of USAID could be due to him not viewing saving Black African lives as a good thing. Now I wonder if it goes back even farther than that.
The mere fact of threatening tariffs causes uncertainty which leads to economic harm. The 'delay' which was achieved by receiving nothing in return is the worst of both worlds as companies will have no choice but to plan as if they were going to be reimplemented in 30 days.
I think you're right. Tariffs are an attention getter for sure, but they are incredibly clumsy.
Yeah we will see where we will be in a month. Trump got no concessions on people crossing over the border. Unpredictability is not good but have to wonder how him backstabbing USMCA will affect US' credibility across the world. Prices will now go up because of the uncertainty. He says he wants to annex Canada and has shown no other motive. Fentanyl from Canadian side is very very little.
Good read. I agree with you that Trump should get the blame for failures, but the blame for plans gone awry never falls on Trump. 40% of America will believe his deflections.
'Unwise' isn't among the first 100 terms that come to mind when trying to describe this administration's behavior to date.
I'm pretty much an open borders ideologue, but I still like consistency, so it kind of annoys me to hear people who would make the case that immigration does not depress wages of native workers in one situation turn around and try to claim that deportations are going to raise labor costs and prices.
The reason that immigration doesn't lower wages is because immigrants are also consumers. Deporting immigrants would mean fewer consumers which should balance out the decrease in the labor force.
It's been interesting that no one seems to be talking about the most significant economic pressure from high immigration: housing prices. It's certainly been a factor here the past few years (exacerbated by the hangover in homebuilding following the great recession of course).
Canada is a good example too. They have high rates of legal immigration, but their housing policy and construction has not kept up, making prices very high.
Unfortunately regardless of red or blue, NIMBYs are gonna NIMBY. California is a good example (with the layers of environmental regulation added, and often used as a weapon by NIMBYs).