Ben Dreyfuss, Megan McArdle and Anthony Fisher join me to discuss the trade war that isn't (yet), the payment freeze, the war on USAID, the plane crash, and whether the government needs employees.
I really dislike the style of commentary that invents a sane thing Donald Trump could be doing and defends it, instead of what he is actually doing. Does Megan have some evidence that he and Musk are reforming federal hiring? Based on his Cabinet nominees, does it seem that the people he wants to hire will be especially qualified? Regarding Josh’s wishcasting about VC models, are the skills required to be a great programmer the same as the ones involved in distributing foreign assistance? Any thoughts on the long term consequences for US soft power when USAID is (illegally) shuttered, or was this another stroke of managerial mad genius?
This was like listening to a critical analysis of how much Mussolini or Dorpmuller were focused on railway efficiency.
I found the same kind of glibness made the last episode hard to listen to, and for an episode entitled ‘the reign of Elon’ not to question what other motives a billionaire who has been publicly chucking nazi salutes and supporting far right / neo-nazi causes globally might have made it a waste of time.
This episode and the last felt like regardless of the outcome of these events (let’s say ranging from dysfunctional govt to 4th reich) these takes will be the elevator music to it, rather than offering any real insight or analysis. It’s a real pity because Serious trouble does it so much better.
Yeah, I want to stress that I’m open to (though am not currently persuaded by) some argument that the administration is not attempting to burrow white supremacists into the government* and loot it for Elon’s personal gain, and more broadly that our institutions will be fine. This seems to be what our hosts think. I’d love for them to be right! But none of them have actually made that case using evidence and/or logic rather than glib assertion, and it makes me feel like the kid in the Emperor’s New Clothes when they all gloss right over it.
*See also Elon rehiring the groyper 20something, which I’d like to see the podcast address in the context of the “management mad genius” argument
I thought Josh nothing early in that DOGE is not a real Department of Govt was the start of that, but it was glossed over. Even if everything discussed is true and plausible, Musk’s neo nazi leanings and influence in recent South African aid decisions is surely directly relevant to how decisions might be made in DOGE daily business.
Mostly good episode, but I thought the obsequious fawning over Elon Musk was over the top.
Yes, the federal government needs hiring reform. No, Elon Musk is not working on hiring reform.
Yes, there are federal workers who have been on the job too long and are just sort of there marking time until retirement. No, Elon's not doing anything strategic about that. In fact he has the government set to purge all the recent hires still in their probationary periods because they can be fired without having to deal with civil service protections. That's not a smart process, it's a dumb one (mindless last in first out without regard to productivity). And of course he made the big offer to let anyone quit regarless of whether they are good at their job or not.
However brilliant he may be, the thing he did at Twitter was not exactly a success. Yes, he fired a lot of people but Twitter was a better and more profitable platform befor ehe overpaid for it. And Twitter is just basically one thing with some auxiliary functions. The fedral government does many different unrealted things.
And, no, you cannot reform something like the Air Traffic Control system using the type of approach Musk used at Twitter (and what he is reportedly doing at Treasury) unless the goal is to see a lot of plane crashes.
You all *really* should have mentioned that Musk is letting his wunderkinder muck around with extremely sensitive data, like student loan info and SSNs. Megan's point that a lot of government agencies don't do a great job would be better taken if Musk was focusing exclusively on *those* agencies, instead of just randomly stealing PII.
I think Ben made the point, but inviting high volatility is the right strategy when you’re deep out of the money. Is that where we are in the U.S. in 2025? The government does lots of things wrong, but what is the crisis that requires us to blow things up to start from scratch? Maybe I’m just a self-satisfied shitlib but I haven’t been feeling like we’re on Flight 93, so I really can’t figure out why everyone is so blasé about possibly crashing the fucking plane.
The upcoming crisis which be very good to avoid is the ballooning deficit created by the mismatch between revenues and outlays which is exacerbated by rolling that debt over at substantially higher interest rates due to the idiocy of the Yellen Treasury in not seriously lengthening its average maturity when the government could have borrowed all it wanted at very extended terms at historically low rates. The excuses not to do so were the usually CYA BS by people who were the typical bureaucrats. Beware the bond vigilantes - they are already showing signs of restlessness.
Also, if you do tear out the bad programs and their supporters by the roots and salt the earth they will simply remain dormant until provided a better growing environment.
In the DOGE conversation, if wish somebody had brought up how incredibly inhumane it is to treat federal workers so unconscionably. Federal employees are just trying to do the best they can and make a living and I wish somebody on the panel would’ve said something in their defense. Yeah, government like anything can use some steam lining but to have some random emails sent out for potentially illegals buyouts is ridiculous. Why is it ok to treat civil servants like garbage?
I was one of those "teenager who decodes a scroll" types of kid, and was hired out of school to a tech startup because of my background.
While I have not personally worked with Musk, I have worked with people in that culture, so I want to respond to the claims about the approach to "execution" he follows.
It's pretty common to hear claims about processes like that. But it's total bullshit. There is absolutely no method at all to what Musk does or how he works, it's total nonsense. This subset of tech culture is one of "make something up off the top of your head that sounds reasonable" (which is why he's such a good fit for Trump) with a heaping pile of "the media somehow credulously buys what you say even though it's obviously nonsense" thrown in (which is why he's such a good fit for Trump).
Megans point about the ways the federal hiring process is godawful can not be emphasized enough. I am in a national security-adjacent field (cybersecurity) and had considered gov service to be a huge "bucket list" item, to get to work on the really hard and big problems at an agency like CISA, or work within federal law enforcement. every once in a while i go explore to see if theres anything i can apply for, but god, USAjobs is a nightmare of a website.
federal job requirements often list "experience required" for a position at a certain pay scale as just, at least a year at work similar to the pay scale below it. you need a different "federal resume" as megan implies that is basically to list every nut and bolt youve ever touched so that every aspect of the job listing matches. half the job listings are restricted to people already working in the government (why they somehow are publicly listed is beyond me), meaning you basically have to win the lottery once to even enter.
I remember when Obama and Biden overreached in executive orders, Megan screamed for weeks about abuse of power. When Elon does flagrantly illegal things, she calls it brilliant management. I have long suspected that Megan had no integrity and used separation of powers and federalism as convenient clubs to attack policies she didn’t like. Now she has confirmed her bad faith: its just about using power, whether legal or not, to get the outcome you want. Thank you for provong you have no principles, Megan.
I think this episode was better. Josh, you are doing yeoman’s work in setting-up the topics with observations and then questions that get to the heart of things. But among the others, there’s still a lot of just off-hand and not very additive comments — and more often than not preceded by gratuitous digs at Democrats centered how they are all just basically incorrigibly woke . . . And then Megan ends with “I’m really pulling for Elon Musk.” That’s not centrist. It’s . . . heartless if you think for a second about the thousands of people of good will who are now victims of Musk’s violence towards them and may, in fact be listening to your broadcast. Not sure I could tune in with her there, absent an apology. She needs to read Ezra Klein’s interview of Kara Swisher in the NYTs two days ago.
Ben said that Democrats didn’t let their kooks get near government power, but it is worth noting that RFK Jr. was on Obama’s short list to head the EPA. Ended up not getting the nomination because of his past cocaine use.
I really dislike the style of commentary that invents a sane thing Donald Trump could be doing and defends it, instead of what he is actually doing. Does Megan have some evidence that he and Musk are reforming federal hiring? Based on his Cabinet nominees, does it seem that the people he wants to hire will be especially qualified? Regarding Josh’s wishcasting about VC models, are the skills required to be a great programmer the same as the ones involved in distributing foreign assistance? Any thoughts on the long term consequences for US soft power when USAID is (illegally) shuttered, or was this another stroke of managerial mad genius?
This was like listening to a critical analysis of how much Mussolini or Dorpmuller were focused on railway efficiency.
I found the same kind of glibness made the last episode hard to listen to, and for an episode entitled ‘the reign of Elon’ not to question what other motives a billionaire who has been publicly chucking nazi salutes and supporting far right / neo-nazi causes globally might have made it a waste of time.
This episode and the last felt like regardless of the outcome of these events (let’s say ranging from dysfunctional govt to 4th reich) these takes will be the elevator music to it, rather than offering any real insight or analysis. It’s a real pity because Serious trouble does it so much better.
Yeah, I want to stress that I’m open to (though am not currently persuaded by) some argument that the administration is not attempting to burrow white supremacists into the government* and loot it for Elon’s personal gain, and more broadly that our institutions will be fine. This seems to be what our hosts think. I’d love for them to be right! But none of them have actually made that case using evidence and/or logic rather than glib assertion, and it makes me feel like the kid in the Emperor’s New Clothes when they all gloss right over it.
*See also Elon rehiring the groyper 20something, which I’d like to see the podcast address in the context of the “management mad genius” argument
I thought Josh nothing early in that DOGE is not a real Department of Govt was the start of that, but it was glossed over. Even if everything discussed is true and plausible, Musk’s neo nazi leanings and influence in recent South African aid decisions is surely directly relevant to how decisions might be made in DOGE daily business.
Mostly good episode, but I thought the obsequious fawning over Elon Musk was over the top.
Yes, the federal government needs hiring reform. No, Elon Musk is not working on hiring reform.
Yes, there are federal workers who have been on the job too long and are just sort of there marking time until retirement. No, Elon's not doing anything strategic about that. In fact he has the government set to purge all the recent hires still in their probationary periods because they can be fired without having to deal with civil service protections. That's not a smart process, it's a dumb one (mindless last in first out without regard to productivity). And of course he made the big offer to let anyone quit regarless of whether they are good at their job or not.
However brilliant he may be, the thing he did at Twitter was not exactly a success. Yes, he fired a lot of people but Twitter was a better and more profitable platform befor ehe overpaid for it. And Twitter is just basically one thing with some auxiliary functions. The fedral government does many different unrealted things.
And, no, you cannot reform something like the Air Traffic Control system using the type of approach Musk used at Twitter (and what he is reportedly doing at Treasury) unless the goal is to see a lot of plane crashes.
You all *really* should have mentioned that Musk is letting his wunderkinder muck around with extremely sensitive data, like student loan info and SSNs. Megan's point that a lot of government agencies don't do a great job would be better taken if Musk was focusing exclusively on *those* agencies, instead of just randomly stealing PII.
You wanted criticism so I need to remind you that mayo sucks.
True
Fact check: false.
I think Ben made the point, but inviting high volatility is the right strategy when you’re deep out of the money. Is that where we are in the U.S. in 2025? The government does lots of things wrong, but what is the crisis that requires us to blow things up to start from scratch? Maybe I’m just a self-satisfied shitlib but I haven’t been feeling like we’re on Flight 93, so I really can’t figure out why everyone is so blasé about possibly crashing the fucking plane.
The upcoming crisis which be very good to avoid is the ballooning deficit created by the mismatch between revenues and outlays which is exacerbated by rolling that debt over at substantially higher interest rates due to the idiocy of the Yellen Treasury in not seriously lengthening its average maturity when the government could have borrowed all it wanted at very extended terms at historically low rates. The excuses not to do so were the usually CYA BS by people who were the typical bureaucrats. Beware the bond vigilantes - they are already showing signs of restlessness.
Also, if you do tear out the bad programs and their supporters by the roots and salt the earth they will simply remain dormant until provided a better growing environment.
In the DOGE conversation, if wish somebody had brought up how incredibly inhumane it is to treat federal workers so unconscionably. Federal employees are just trying to do the best they can and make a living and I wish somebody on the panel would’ve said something in their defense. Yeah, government like anything can use some steam lining but to have some random emails sent out for potentially illegals buyouts is ridiculous. Why is it ok to treat civil servants like garbage?
TBF I've never been offered an eight month severance.
I was one of those "teenager who decodes a scroll" types of kid, and was hired out of school to a tech startup because of my background.
While I have not personally worked with Musk, I have worked with people in that culture, so I want to respond to the claims about the approach to "execution" he follows.
It's pretty common to hear claims about processes like that. But it's total bullshit. There is absolutely no method at all to what Musk does or how he works, it's total nonsense. This subset of tech culture is one of "make something up off the top of your head that sounds reasonable" (which is why he's such a good fit for Trump) with a heaping pile of "the media somehow credulously buys what you say even though it's obviously nonsense" thrown in (which is why he's such a good fit for Trump).
My centrist take is that mayo is mostly great, but in certain contexts can ruin everything.
Megans point about the ways the federal hiring process is godawful can not be emphasized enough. I am in a national security-adjacent field (cybersecurity) and had considered gov service to be a huge "bucket list" item, to get to work on the really hard and big problems at an agency like CISA, or work within federal law enforcement. every once in a while i go explore to see if theres anything i can apply for, but god, USAjobs is a nightmare of a website.
federal job requirements often list "experience required" for a position at a certain pay scale as just, at least a year at work similar to the pay scale below it. you need a different "federal resume" as megan implies that is basically to list every nut and bolt youve ever touched so that every aspect of the job listing matches. half the job listings are restricted to people already working in the government (why they somehow are publicly listed is beyond me), meaning you basically have to win the lottery once to even enter.
I remember when Obama and Biden overreached in executive orders, Megan screamed for weeks about abuse of power. When Elon does flagrantly illegal things, she calls it brilliant management. I have long suspected that Megan had no integrity and used separation of powers and federalism as convenient clubs to attack policies she didn’t like. Now she has confirmed her bad faith: its just about using power, whether legal or not, to get the outcome you want. Thank you for provong you have no principles, Megan.
I think this episode was better. Josh, you are doing yeoman’s work in setting-up the topics with observations and then questions that get to the heart of things. But among the others, there’s still a lot of just off-hand and not very additive comments — and more often than not preceded by gratuitous digs at Democrats centered how they are all just basically incorrigibly woke . . . And then Megan ends with “I’m really pulling for Elon Musk.” That’s not centrist. It’s . . . heartless if you think for a second about the thousands of people of good will who are now victims of Musk’s violence towards them and may, in fact be listening to your broadcast. Not sure I could tune in with her there, absent an apology. She needs to read Ezra Klein’s interview of Kara Swisher in the NYTs two days ago.
Is there a link for a transcript?
Thank you!
Click back to the main post, there's a 'transcript' button under the title.
Found it -the link is visible in the browser but not on the app. Thank you!!
I don’t see it in the app
Ben said that Democrats didn’t let their kooks get near government power, but it is worth noting that RFK Jr. was on Obama’s short list to head the EPA. Ended up not getting the nomination because of his past cocaine use.
Thanks, but some of us don't have time to listen to yet another podcast. Transcript or summary please.
Click back to the main post, there's a 'transcript' button under the title.
Thank you. That link shows up when you go to the site, https://www.joshbarro.com/p/the-reign-of-elon.
It does not appear in the email that normally contains the full post.
It would be helpful to provide a link in the email to post on the site where the transcript can be found.