48 Comments

Another thing to consider is that most of these people around Biden are only here because of Biden and will never likely have this level of influence/status again when Biden leaves office, whether that's now or January 2025 or January 2029. Being a chief of staff or senior adviser for a president suffering cognitive decline puts you in a position of power that's only surpassed by being POTUS yourself. So to some of them, Biden dropping out is as bad as Biden losing because their influence ends on January 2025 either way.

Also, I was surprised that there was no mention of Hunter Biden. All this reporting of Hunter Biden having influence on Joe's decisions is basically confirming every Hunter-related conspiracy theory from the right and it seems totally insane that Joe and his inner circle don't seem to be trying to keep their distance from him.

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Like Clinton in 2016, they're rolling the dice, and if they lose it's not much different than if someone else lost, right?

Clinton deliberately wiped out all alternatives, and Biden's camp has done all they can to paint Democrats into a corner where it's too late to change course. Maybe.

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This was all so easy to avoid. If only Biden had honored his pledge to be a "bridge" president between the older and younger generations of Democrats, which many of us took to mean he'd stand only for a single term.

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It would have been impossible for him to function if he had done that. Teddy Roosevelt foolishly made the same promise.

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He could have announced that in 2023, and I think he would have been able to govern at the same level.

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What experience do you have in governing? I trust Biden’s judgement because he has the experience.

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What experience do YOU have in governing? What did you think Biden meant when he said he saw himself as a bridge - did you infer from that statement that he intended to serve in office until he was 86 years old?

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I’m not the one telling Biden what to do. If Trump hadn’t decided to run again, I bet Biden wouldn’t have either.

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Look, there's zero doubt we'd be having any of these conversations if Biden had taken himself out of the running. Trump or not - we wouldn't be here at all if it weren't for Biden's insistence on hanging on long past the time he should have exited stage left. The debate performance he put in last week was the WORST debate execution I've seen in my entire life and I am 53 years old.

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Tell me what experience you have that justifies this opinion. It takes far longer than that to get a credible campaign going, and Biden would have been a late duck meanwhile.

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Biden passed most of his big stuff in the first half of his term, when Dems had congressional control, before he announces retirement in my scenario. I don't think him being a lame duck would have had a big effect on the stuff (like military aid to Ukraine) that has passed since then, it might have been even easier to pass because Republicans wouldn't worry about Biden getting credit for stuff. Meanwhile I think other Dems easily could have gotten a campaign together in a year and a half.

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Would Kamala be the heir-apparent, or have an open primary?

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I dunno. I've no skin in this game as I am not casting a ballot for president this election.

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Last week (I can’t remember if it was before or after the debate), GOP pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson said that the administration had been gaslighting Americans about Biden’s mental and physical condition. As a Democrat, I really bristled at the use of that word. Now, after the debate and the Politico reporting about how frequently Biden has had senior episodes, I’m coming to by concision that she’s right. Biden is so stubborn, though. Between that and his insular team encouraging him to press on, I’m definitely concerned that he’ll dig in his heels.

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One way to combat the stubborness would be to appeal to his legacy. If he steps aside now, he has a much better chance of leaving a strong, positive legacy because he will have done what was necessary to spare the country from the disaster of another Trump term. I don't approve of everything he's done as president but he's actually done a pretty good job. History will likely reflect kindly on him (particularly in the aftermath of Trump). Getting trounced by Trump because the electorate perceives him as senile would be particularly undignifying. From a pure selfish perspective, it would be a better, safer move to drop out now to save face and have some control over his legacy.

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Kristen is a real one. Even though she’s technically R she’s like the republican version of Steve Kornacki. Tells it like it is and just calls balls and strikes. No partisan spin.

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I didn’t mean to imply that she was exaggerating. It was just a startling comment. I’ve seen her on CNN many times And definitely believe what she says.

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Totally understand. The term gaslight has been overused the past 7 yrs, but in this instance it’s for reals

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The comment about the younger aides is like State television or something. To say it after Thursday night is absurd - unless they are willing to back it up by (for example) accepting Jake Tapper’s dare to do a take-all-questions presser or something. If instead they are just going to give the appearance of putting him back in the cocoon - it’s all just bullshit. Going beyond the commentary - the decision on Sunday to not cancel a Vanity Fair photoshoot with public and extreme prejudice was additional malpractice. I’m not lying when I say that Pelosi, Jeffries, Schumer, and several governors were probably waiting near their phones all weekend for a WH switchboard call which never came. When Senators like Whitehouse and Reed are like, gee, I don’t know, they have a problem here. When Coons, (Coons!!) admits to Tapper that he’s hoping the campaign *does* do something like a press conference? Everyone is officially out of their depth. The campaign doesn’t have control over the candidate/his family and they’re seemingly sitting around Camp David yelling “fix this but don’t interrupt his weekend!!”

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Joe Biden has had an amazing career in public service at the highest level. He’s accomplished many things and had a great term as president. But all good things must come to an end.

It’s time for Joe to hang it up while he’s on top and step aside. That would be true no matter who the republican candidate is, but with the very real prospect of another Trump term, it’s vital for the good of the country.

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While I’m deeply concerned about the 2024 cycle, I’m starting to fear more about what happens to the Dem party image if they run Biden. I think they will completely destroy any amount of respectability they still have by supporting a candidate who is two steps away from making this a Weekend at Bernie’s type campaign. The public will remember this betrayal and subterfuge for years to come and then we’ll have to batshit crazy parties instead of at least one intelligent party.

*Hand waiving support for Biden’s first term*

*& yes Orange Man Bad*

I don’t oppose Trump because I don’t like him, or his policies from his first term. I oppose Trump because he is fundamentally unfit to wield the awesome powers of the office. Someone that self-absorbed and that deeply unintelligent should not come within 5000 miles of the Oval Office.

I was absolutely appalled at what I saw at the debate. After watching it, I now feel that Biden too should not be anywhere near the responsibility and function of the executive office. I thought they should’ve 25thA that night. Absolutely mind blowing that these people are trying to continue this charade, they will reap what they sow. Unfortunately we all will probably reap what these people sow.

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I’m with you on the point about the polling data. If polls continue to show Biden consistently performing worse over the next week, I think he should step down, even if that means Kamala gets the nod.

One thing Kamala can do: vigorously prosecute Donald Trump on all his immorality and criminality.

It would be utterly demoralizing and depressing if Biden stays and then Trump dominates him in another debate because Biden just doesn’t have the gusto or wit anymore to fire back.

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Everyone knows all about Trump's immorality and criminality - he was president for four years and has spent the intervening four running for a new term, he's 100% a known factor. Kamala isn't going to shed light on something people have missed because most people just don't care.

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So you think Biden is still the better choice? Interestingly, and this is anecdotal, but my friend who supports Trump prefers old man Joe more than Kamala.

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I am an independent and am not going to be casting a ballot for president this election. I cannot vote for someone as immoral as Trump and Biden is turning into a vegetable before our eyes. I was a Nikki Haley supporter and I like Josh Shapiro too.

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I understand the sentiment. My only quibble is this: Who concerns you more, Biden or Trump? For me, it’s Trump by a long shot, so any vote that is not affirmative for Biden is functionally a vote for Trump. So if Trump concerns you more as it does me, I would hold your nose and vote for Biden.

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I live in California - no chance of Trump winning this state!!

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Ha! Touché, my friend!

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This cycle he just might!

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At this point it doesn't matter what the polling data says. It was clear more than a year ago that Biden is not capable of doing the job for another term. Even if the Democrats lose, it's better to lose with someone else even if that person is not an ideal candidate. At least you can rule this person out in the next primary. Voters do not like being lied to and even if Biden wins and then resigns to let Harris complete the next term, voters will not forgive him and the party for this deceit.

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"Bedwetters" was also used by Obama to describe people who were shouting behind closed doors that the Obamacare website rollout was going to be a botch.

Just a wonderful metaphor, always backfiring. Or backsplashing.

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I don’t agree with those saying Biden needs to be removed from office today. His answers at the debate were grounded in reality - despite his fragmented sentences, I knew what he was going for with essentially everything he said. That’s not to say I think he did a good job, or that I disagree that his communication ability is not what it was four years ago. But nothing in this performance suggested to me that he’s truly senile - confused, delusional, going to wake up tomorrow and think it’s actually 1994. It was bad, but it was along the lines of what I’ve seen from him in other recent public appearances - if he’d said the exact same things in a stronger voice, I don’t think we’d be having this conversation.

I’m guessing part of the defensiveness from staff has been trying to walk that line - to push back on bad-faith Republican assertions that he’s the equivalent of an Alzheimer’s patient, which is worth doing. It sounds like it was more of a gamble about whether SOTU Joe or Tired Joe would show up on the debate night than something like active concealment a la Reagan, but public perception of the issue hasn’t really made that distinction.

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Biden’s mental fitness should’ve been under the microscope over the past few years and national political media failed to report on such critical matters.

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Person, woman, man, camera, tv

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What exactly happened with to idea that Biden would be a “transitional” president? I have a vague recollection that this was relatively popular, but I’m not sure the Biden team itself ever actually signed on to this? In any case, that’s closely related to the question about who would replace Biden - there’s really not an obvious “successor” given Harris’ relative unpopularity. When I talk to more left-wing people, the implicit assumption is that the next candidate is going to be, like, AOC or someone - I think she’s got a good head on her shoulders, but good luck with that. Everyone probably heard what they wanted to hear with the “transitional presidency” thing…

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A combination of everyone disliking Harris and the fact that a president's team knows they only have power as long as he is in office. People tend to believe what it takes to keep their job.

And Biden wasn't ever going to be hard to convince. It's flattering and it's the job he has always wanted. Everyone told him a bunch of previous times it was over but he persevered and was victorious (the people who persevered and never made it are less memorable if more numerous).

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I’d say the “transitional president” concept is exactly the same as the “his advisors will temper him” nonsense with Trump. It sounds great and might fool some people, but it was a pipe dream.

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As a Democrat I feel anger towards Biden’s family and inner circle for backing his run for a second term when it’s obvious he isn’t up to the task. However, I can also feel empathy for them. My grandmother suffered from dementia for many years. I know all too well that denial is a very strong factor when cognitive issues begin to set in, both for the person affected, and for the family. It’s frightening to admit that someone you love is declining before your eyes, and for as long as possible you’ll pretend that nothing is wrong and that life will keep going as it always has.

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People don't want to scream "Biden's too old and he's going to let Trump win" because doing that just makes it more likely Trump will win.

Yes, Biden's too old but at this point only Biden himself can make the call to let someone else run -- influenced perhaps by trusted colleagues (I hope Obama is thinking of making a suggestion in private). Calling out Biden's team in the media doesn't make it more likely they'll change their tune. So if you don't want Trump elected and nothing you say in the media is likely to make Biden change his mind why help the other team? Might as well try and go for some message discipline and do the best with what we have.

And frankly for running the country it doesn't matter how senile he gets. It's happened before - his staff and spouse can basically manage shit for him.

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I don't think Biden has any realistic path to victory as the nominee anymore, no matter how unified and disciplined Democrats are. So I think the next best option, if we're stuck with Biden as the nominee, is to basically triage him immediately and not weigh down downballot candidates so that it'll be easier for Dems to win at least one, if not both, chambers of Congress to blunt some of the damage Trump and Project 2025 can do to this country. Right now, it's a lot easier for them to run on being a check on a Trump presidency than on supporting the agenda of a very unpopular Biden.

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Let's not make the Hillary mistake again in reverse and assume disfavored and unthinkable are the same.

I tend to believe the prediction markets are relatively accurate for this. Besides the polling (which is now adjusted for earlier kinds of errors) didn't change that much after the debate.

Sure, if you imagine absolutely nothing happens between now and then it would be pretty unlikely for Biden to win. But that's not usually the way campaigns work. Trump is going to be out there saying a doing things and he could easily make an even bigger blunder.

For instance, suppose Trump starts mocking Biden and doing impressions of him being senile. Totally something he might do and suddenly what the older voters have always liked about him makes him seem awful to them. Shit could go down in Ukraine or in Taiwan. Or just someone leaks a tape of Trump promising some rich donor he's going to screw the X voters this time.

Or the Biden campaign could actually fucking give him good drugs for the next debate and Trump could be dumb enough not to weasel out.

Or undecideds could just break one way, or the polls have overcorrected or a hundred other things.

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Trump's been saying deranged, stupid things for nearly a decade now. That stuff is already baked in to voters. I don't understand why people keep thinking more deranged, stupid shit from Trump is going to somehow change things.

Biden had his best opportunity to prove to voters that he was better than that during the debate and he totally failed. It's a bad thing that polling didn't change much after the debate because the debate was supposed to propel Biden ahead of Trump. That's the whole reason his campaign wanted it to be scheduled now.

And even worse, the campaign doesn't appear willing to do the things necessary to turn around the perception of Biden's mental fitness. Biden needs to be out there right now doing live, unscripted appearances to show the public that he's still mentally sharp enough to be president, but as far as I can tell all he's doing in the near future is a prerecorded interview for ABC with a former Bill Clinton aide. Totally ridiculous.

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No matter what his team was like this was always going to be hard shot. A presidents team gains their power from him. If he doesn't win they lose their influence and it's very hard to convince a man of something if their job depends on not believing it.

And remember that anyone who has become president is someone who has decided to bet big on pulling out a political longshot and won. He's been trying for decades and failing and it finally worked. So it's a bit like trying to convince someone who played the lotto for 40 years and hit the big jackpot to think playing the lotto is a bad choice.

So I think there is some wisdom in accepting that unless you're Obama, or a close Biden advisor you might want to just keep on message until you can assemble a really broad coalition sufficient to force him to back out lest you end up helping Trump more on net -- even if it's true it might not be helpful messaging.

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Forget the campaign / Trump element, why aren’t we discussing if Biden is fit to be president right now? If he is showing realtime deterioration of his cognitive abilities and stamina then he should resign, full stop (and I am a longtime Biden supporter).

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