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Marc Robbins's avatar

"Inflation is why the election will be close."

We have no idea if inflation will lead to a close election next year. Inflation has been falling steadily and as you note incomes have begun catching up to it. If this persists, inflation may turn into a passing issue, like DeSantis's diatribe against COVID lockdowns.

I see the tied polls as good news actually. People are really mad about inflation, blame Biden, and yet he's *still* tied with Trump. If inflation does actually recede as an issue and the population sees the economy in a better light, that has to help him in the polls.

Of course, if inflation comes roaring back, or the Fed hikes lead to a spike in job loss, that would be very bad for Biden (as it would for any Democrat who replaced him). So I guess we'll just have to see what happens.

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