High consumer prices are the ultimate reason we're facing a close Trump-Biden rematch; media outlets are too quick to repeat inflated statistics from pressure groups.
I think the other reason Sunak and Trudeau are faring worse than Biden is that their parties have been in power since 2010 and 2015, respectively, so the opposition represents a fresher alternative than a return to Trump in the US.
I agree the way Biden presents the inflation challenge will be critical to his reelection. Right now, he's not saying what needs to be said to the American prople. And the economists are absolutely hopeless in their lack of empathy.
I appreciate his thoughtful and deliberate approach to publishing, but yeah, just a little more output would be nice. What happened to the Mayonnaise Clinic?
One thing I have thought about recently is that prices rose dramatically in 2022, peaked at 9%, but even though inflation is down to around 3%, prices themselves are *still high* from that 9% jump. So unless we were to have overall deflation, and because wages are just now starting to keep up with *current* inflation, I think it is easy to understand why people are still sour about the economy. Unless I’m wrong about this analysis (corrections welcomed from other commenters), seeing inflation now around 3% is good, but the underlying cost increases from past inflation are still hurting people. Shouldn’t that be pretty obvious to economists?
Seems that student debt relief advocates are the masters at manipulating the numbers and getting Senator Warren and Rep. Pressley to validate through repetition. I'm not sure i even get the ongoing focus other than they seem to believe that it is the only shot at getting spending without going through Congress in spite of the SCOTUS ruling.
This is THE best article I’ve read about our current political situation. Journalists on TV and in print are speculating on why Biden’s approval numbers remain low, in light of the fact inflation is “cooling”. The problem is, to those of us in the real world, inflation isn’t “cooling” at all. Gas prices have gone up a lot just in the last month, and every trip to the grocery store is a reminder that food prices remain very high.
We keep hearing that core inflation, not including food and gas, is falling. But food and gas are the two biggest variable expenses for most households. There is a lot of speculation in the media about Biden’s weakness with minority voters. It’s not the cultural issues cited by most pundits, it’s inflation.
The Biden administration isn’t doing itself any favors by touting Bidenomics and falling inflation numbers. It just seems tone deaf and out of touch, like HW Bush campaigning in 1992 on an economic recovery people weren’t feeling, while Bill Clinton was telling them he felt their pain.
Biden should be saying re economy and COVID: "I'm sorry you have been struggling for so many years, and it's only starting to get a little bit better now. I'm sorry there's still so much that we have to hang in there about."
I was not challenging its impact on individuals. Rather, I was comparing it to Josh's point about fake statistics which advocates for student debt relief won't stop employing.
Maybe it's the cynicism I've developed observing how government spending is seen as a piggy bank by the unprincipled among us, watching another special interest gaming the system in the hopes the spigot can be kept open is not a surprise. Recalling reports of $500 hammers sold to the Defense Dept., the corruption in the anti-poverty programs of the late 60s, and for-profit colleges taking advantage of government-guaranteed student loans, it's hard not to believe that much of government spending corruptly redirects public funds into private hands.
We have no idea if inflation will lead to a close election next year. Inflation has been falling steadily and as you note incomes have begun catching up to it. If this persists, inflation may turn into a passing issue, like DeSantis's diatribe against COVID lockdowns.
I see the tied polls as good news actually. People are really mad about inflation, blame Biden, and yet he's *still* tied with Trump. If inflation does actually recede as an issue and the population sees the economy in a better light, that has to help him in the polls.
Of course, if inflation comes roaring back, or the Fed hikes lead to a spike in job loss, that would be very bad for Biden (as it would for any Democrat who replaced him). So I guess we'll just have to see what happens.
And there there's.the massive EGO INFLATION in Donald The Great and much of the American political right, and their massive ASS-U-ME-ING God is on their side, and the inexplicable to this lawyer, who is a political independent, zero attempt by President Biden to ask the US District Court in Washington, D.C., where the January 6, 2021 attempt to overthrow the U.S. Constitution happened, at the behest of Donald the Great, to declare Donald The Great disqualified from holding any public office under the very plain reading of Amendment 14, Section 3, as follows:
"No person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice-President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any State, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any State legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any State, to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof. But Congress may by a vote of two-thirds of each House, remove such disability."
I think the other reason Sunak and Trudeau are faring worse than Biden is that their parties have been in power since 2010 and 2015, respectively, so the opposition represents a fresher alternative than a return to Trump in the US.
I agree the way Biden presents the inflation challenge will be critical to his reelection. Right now, he's not saying what needs to be said to the American prople. And the economists are absolutely hopeless in their lack of empathy.
Read my take:
https://kathleenweber.substack.com/p/biden-and-noah-smith-are-wrong-gasp
I also write about China.
I like when you publish new writing. You should do it more often.
it's pretty obvious that he writes carefully, and that can take time.
https://kathleenweber.substack.com/p/biden-and-noah-smith-are-wrong-gasp
As much as I appreciate quality over quantity, the balance is off. I believe in Josh's ability to increase the former without sacrificing the latter.
I appreciate his thoughtful and deliberate approach to publishing, but yeah, just a little more output would be nice. What happened to the Mayonnaise Clinic?
Same. When was the last podcast?
I recall Josh saying somewhere that those would be infrequent.
One thing I have thought about recently is that prices rose dramatically in 2022, peaked at 9%, but even though inflation is down to around 3%, prices themselves are *still high* from that 9% jump. So unless we were to have overall deflation, and because wages are just now starting to keep up with *current* inflation, I think it is easy to understand why people are still sour about the economy. Unless I’m wrong about this analysis (corrections welcomed from other commenters), seeing inflation now around 3% is good, but the underlying cost increases from past inflation are still hurting people. Shouldn’t that be pretty obvious to economists?
The lingering pain and shock of inflation should be obvious to economists, but for some reason it isn't.
https://kathleenweber.substack.com/p/biden-and-noah-smith-are-wrong-gasp
Seems that student debt relief advocates are the masters at manipulating the numbers and getting Senator Warren and Rep. Pressley to validate through repetition. I'm not sure i even get the ongoing focus other than they seem to believe that it is the only shot at getting spending without going through Congress in spite of the SCOTUS ruling.
This is THE best article I’ve read about our current political situation. Journalists on TV and in print are speculating on why Biden’s approval numbers remain low, in light of the fact inflation is “cooling”. The problem is, to those of us in the real world, inflation isn’t “cooling” at all. Gas prices have gone up a lot just in the last month, and every trip to the grocery store is a reminder that food prices remain very high.
We keep hearing that core inflation, not including food and gas, is falling. But food and gas are the two biggest variable expenses for most households. There is a lot of speculation in the media about Biden’s weakness with minority voters. It’s not the cultural issues cited by most pundits, it’s inflation.
The Biden administration isn’t doing itself any favors by touting Bidenomics and falling inflation numbers. It just seems tone deaf and out of touch, like HW Bush campaigning in 1992 on an economic recovery people weren’t feeling, while Bill Clinton was telling them he felt their pain.
Biden should be saying re economy and COVID: "I'm sorry you have been struggling for so many years, and it's only starting to get a little bit better now. I'm sorry there's still so much that we have to hang in there about."
https://kathleenweber.substack.com/p/biden-and-noah-smith-are-wrong-gasp
I was not challenging its impact on individuals. Rather, I was comparing it to Josh's point about fake statistics which advocates for student debt relief won't stop employing.
Maybe it's the cynicism I've developed observing how government spending is seen as a piggy bank by the unprincipled among us, watching another special interest gaming the system in the hopes the spigot can be kept open is not a surprise. Recalling reports of $500 hammers sold to the Defense Dept., the corruption in the anti-poverty programs of the late 60s, and for-profit colleges taking advantage of government-guaranteed student loans, it's hard not to believe that much of government spending corruptly redirects public funds into private hands.
"Inflation is why the election will be close."
We have no idea if inflation will lead to a close election next year. Inflation has been falling steadily and as you note incomes have begun catching up to it. If this persists, inflation may turn into a passing issue, like DeSantis's diatribe against COVID lockdowns.
I see the tied polls as good news actually. People are really mad about inflation, blame Biden, and yet he's *still* tied with Trump. If inflation does actually recede as an issue and the population sees the economy in a better light, that has to help him in the polls.
Of course, if inflation comes roaring back, or the Fed hikes lead to a spike in job loss, that would be very bad for Biden (as it would for any Democrat who replaced him). So I guess we'll just have to see what happens.
Is the “ Bidenomics” tour over already? I miss it, some days are better than others....( you look 🔥 on the Reason podcast.) 👻
And there there's.the massive EGO INFLATION in Donald The Great and much of the American political right, and their massive ASS-U-ME-ING God is on their side, and the inexplicable to this lawyer, who is a political independent, zero attempt by President Biden to ask the US District Court in Washington, D.C., where the January 6, 2021 attempt to overthrow the U.S. Constitution happened, at the behest of Donald the Great, to declare Donald The Great disqualified from holding any public office under the very plain reading of Amendment 14, Section 3, as follows:
"No person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice-President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any State, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any State legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any State, to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof. But Congress may by a vote of two-thirds of each House, remove such disability."