"Try to limit your reactions to things that are actually in the process of happening" does seem like a good guiding principle for staying mentally healthy for the next four years.
Trump wants to govern as an autocrat and absolutely will do so if you don't stop him. This is obviously very horrible, but it genuinely has zero new-information content for all except voters who *just* turned 18. I have known this for an ironclad fact for about four years, and strongly suspected it for eight. It's priced-in.
1. I love that you used my favorite word (defenestration)
2. What are the chances that Trump uses tariffs as a grift? How easy would it be for him to exempt certain companies/leaders from such tariffs? You know, in exchange for bribes, or “tips”.
Nah. The big difference is that in contrast to appointing kooks and hacks to cabinet agencies, imposing massive tariffs will have immediate tangible effects on the economy and the everyday lives of Trump voters. Trump is not the brightest political mind on the planet, but deep in his brainstem if nowhere else he knows he doesn't want that, and will manage to avoid it.
For the reasons mentioned by Josh, I think Gaetz is the firmest 'no', followed by Tulsi/RFK interchangeably at 2nd and 3rd place, Hegseth in a distance 4th, and the remainder pretty far below that.
Gaetz is just so utterly abhorrent and hated by so much of DC in general and Congress in particular that I just don't see him getting in. Tulsi is at best a stooge and easy mark for Russian/Chinese propaganda and at worst an active agent of those powers; I believe there are enough hawks left in the GOP that they would sink her. RFK is a crackpot loon, but if he gets nixed I'd guess it would be more because of Big Pharma pressure or his pro-choice stances. Hegseth is a dolt but will get rings run around him by the army (pun intended) of bureaucrats at the DoD, so I think the ultimate amount of harm he can do is limited. The rest still suck for a variety of reasons, but they'll be tolerable enough to whatever cadre of Republicans are still resistant to Trump that they'll deal with them to save their leverage for the big stops, in my opinion.
Bluesky presents a collective action problem because people like Barro who would make it more interesting don't want to be seen anywhere near it in its current form.
"Try to limit your reactions to things that are actually in the process of happening" does seem like a good guiding principle for staying mentally healthy for the next four years.
Trump wants to govern as an autocrat and absolutely will do so if you don't stop him. This is obviously very horrible, but it genuinely has zero new-information content for all except voters who *just* turned 18. I have known this for an ironclad fact for about four years, and strongly suspected it for eight. It's priced-in.
This is great, and I'm appreciating the increased frequency of new writing after what felt like a very long summer lull!
1. I love that you used my favorite word (defenestration)
2. What are the chances that Trump uses tariffs as a grift? How easy would it be for him to exempt certain companies/leaders from such tariffs? You know, in exchange for bribes, or “tips”.
Nah. The big difference is that in contrast to appointing kooks and hacks to cabinet agencies, imposing massive tariffs will have immediate tangible effects on the economy and the everyday lives of Trump voters. Trump is not the brightest political mind on the planet, but deep in his brainstem if nowhere else he knows he doesn't want that, and will manage to avoid it.
I give big props for admitting that you might have mis-calibrated. It's so rare I almost couldn't recognize it.
Everyone says "oh, this thing happened which wasn't what I said would happen, but really it is what I said based on fundamental or something."
Which appointments do we think the Senate might block and by whom? Hoping Tulsi no go.
For the reasons mentioned by Josh, I think Gaetz is the firmest 'no', followed by Tulsi/RFK interchangeably at 2nd and 3rd place, Hegseth in a distance 4th, and the remainder pretty far below that.
Gaetz is just so utterly abhorrent and hated by so much of DC in general and Congress in particular that I just don't see him getting in. Tulsi is at best a stooge and easy mark for Russian/Chinese propaganda and at worst an active agent of those powers; I believe there are enough hawks left in the GOP that they would sink her. RFK is a crackpot loon, but if he gets nixed I'd guess it would be more because of Big Pharma pressure or his pro-choice stances. Hegseth is a dolt but will get rings run around him by the army (pun intended) of bureaucrats at the DoD, so I think the ultimate amount of harm he can do is limited. The rest still suck for a variety of reasons, but they'll be tolerable enough to whatever cadre of Republicans are still resistant to Trump that they'll deal with them to save their leverage for the big stops, in my opinion.
Barro, any chance we see on Bluesky?
No
I found your reasoning in your threads profile. Don’t blame you.
Bluesky presents a collective action problem because people like Barro who would make it more interesting don't want to be seen anywhere near it in its current form.