I do think it's a problem that there were a lot of deficit warnings that were both false (deficits over much of the last 25 years were *not* actually going to explode inflation or cause a sovereign debt crisis) and insincere (Republican politicians arguing about the importance of cutting deficits while out of power because they really ju…
I do think it's a problem that there were a lot of deficit warnings that were both false (deficits over much of the last 25 years were *not* actually going to explode inflation or cause a sovereign debt crisis) and insincere (Republican politicians arguing about the importance of cutting deficits while out of power because they really just wanted to prevent Democrats from spending money). But I think a lot of it is just that the periods when crowd-out was important feel like ancient history; the recent environment of high interest rates and inflation feels bizarre and people haven't thought very much about exactly why it's happening and what could make it stop.
I’ll by insincere but I can’t get onboard with the false part. The increased costs of social security, Medicare and Medicaid as the population aged were well understood. We didn’t just wake up with this new problem in February of 2021. While I’m sure you can find some people who made overwrought claims of imminent crisis, the deficit was a problem in 2006. It was a problem in 2010. It was a problem in 2018. Sovereign debt crises is like corporate bankruptcy, it happens slowly and then suddenly.
Maybe there will be a turning point if, as feels very likely, inflation will rear its ugly head again. That recurrence, or the specter of it, would be as good an opportunity as any to change the narrative.
I do think it's a problem that there were a lot of deficit warnings that were both false (deficits over much of the last 25 years were *not* actually going to explode inflation or cause a sovereign debt crisis) and insincere (Republican politicians arguing about the importance of cutting deficits while out of power because they really just wanted to prevent Democrats from spending money). But I think a lot of it is just that the periods when crowd-out was important feel like ancient history; the recent environment of high interest rates and inflation feels bizarre and people haven't thought very much about exactly why it's happening and what could make it stop.
I’ll by insincere but I can’t get onboard with the false part. The increased costs of social security, Medicare and Medicaid as the population aged were well understood. We didn’t just wake up with this new problem in February of 2021. While I’m sure you can find some people who made overwrought claims of imminent crisis, the deficit was a problem in 2006. It was a problem in 2010. It was a problem in 2018. Sovereign debt crises is like corporate bankruptcy, it happens slowly and then suddenly.
Overwrought claims? You mean like shutting down the government multiple times over the last 25 years? I would consider that overwrought
I do share your belief that it will take a lot more pain before political parties and voters start taking it as seriously as it needs to.
Maybe there will be a turning point if, as feels very likely, inflation will rear its ugly head again. That recurrence, or the specter of it, would be as good an opportunity as any to change the narrative.