I have to laugh. In discussing 2024 with my father a month or so ago, the first name out of my mouth for a Republican that would make sense if the party wanted to tack away from Trump was Scott. I just don't see the base of the party really getting behind him, though.
On a separate matter, I did want to go into is the evangelical politics…
I have to laugh. In discussing 2024 with my father a month or so ago, the first name out of my mouth for a Republican that would make sense if the party wanted to tack away from Trump was Scott. I just don't see the base of the party really getting behind him, though.
On a separate matter, I did want to go into is the evangelical politics matter. Arguably, the Trump years gave them a foothold they lacked in prior administrations. They likely think that January 2017-2021 was extremely successful given the longer term results we've seen so far (and are likely to continue seeing from the current Supreme Court makeup).
I wouldn't expect them to go quietly into the night, regardless of shrinking religious participation. I suspect they'll still seek their pound of flesh quite fervently, looking to entrench their progress from the Trump years.
I don't expect evangelicals to go quietly into the night, either. But I think under George W. Bush they saw themselves as ascendant, believing they could broadly shape policy and culture around their goals. Today, I think they understand themselves as countercultural, and are more focused on carving out a space to pursue their moral worldview than on trying to build a whole society around it. For example, in 2004, they thought they could prohibit gay marriage because they had public opinion on their side; now, they want to stop the government from requiring their private institutions (not just churches but also schools and businesses etc) to conform to a consensus around gay equality that exists not just in policy but also in public opinion. They're in a defensive position rather than an offensive one, perceiving a majority of the public as against them, and that implies a politics that is less hopeful and more bitter.
Also, I think that in the GWB days there was a reasonably coherent conservative Christian vision about the future of the country. You could read about it from Richard John Neuhaus in First Things; Ross Douthat is like the ghost of this POV.
They weren't wrong that the social forces that have made gay marriage mainstream also worked against the family. I'm gay and I want kids and I'm annoyed that my cultural world regards kids as an expensive luxury.
The problem is that only Mormons actually have a family-centered culture. I can understand conservative attitudes towards gay people and women when they come from people who actually pull off the trick of having big happy families.
I genuinely respect the minivan! The Trump phenomenon seems to have proved the Mormons were sincere about the traditional family, but that Evangelical leaders are mostly hucksters driven by greed, prejudice and resentment.
I have to laugh. In discussing 2024 with my father a month or so ago, the first name out of my mouth for a Republican that would make sense if the party wanted to tack away from Trump was Scott. I just don't see the base of the party really getting behind him, though.
On a separate matter, I did want to go into is the evangelical politics matter. Arguably, the Trump years gave them a foothold they lacked in prior administrations. They likely think that January 2017-2021 was extremely successful given the longer term results we've seen so far (and are likely to continue seeing from the current Supreme Court makeup).
I wouldn't expect them to go quietly into the night, regardless of shrinking religious participation. I suspect they'll still seek their pound of flesh quite fervently, looking to entrench their progress from the Trump years.
I don't expect evangelicals to go quietly into the night, either. But I think under George W. Bush they saw themselves as ascendant, believing they could broadly shape policy and culture around their goals. Today, I think they understand themselves as countercultural, and are more focused on carving out a space to pursue their moral worldview than on trying to build a whole society around it. For example, in 2004, they thought they could prohibit gay marriage because they had public opinion on their side; now, they want to stop the government from requiring their private institutions (not just churches but also schools and businesses etc) to conform to a consensus around gay equality that exists not just in policy but also in public opinion. They're in a defensive position rather than an offensive one, perceiving a majority of the public as against them, and that implies a politics that is less hopeful and more bitter.
Also, I think that in the GWB days there was a reasonably coherent conservative Christian vision about the future of the country. You could read about it from Richard John Neuhaus in First Things; Ross Douthat is like the ghost of this POV.
They weren't wrong that the social forces that have made gay marriage mainstream also worked against the family. I'm gay and I want kids and I'm annoyed that my cultural world regards kids as an expensive luxury.
The problem is that only Mormons actually have a family-centered culture. I can understand conservative attitudes towards gay people and women when they come from people who actually pull off the trick of having big happy families.
I genuinely respect the minivan! The Trump phenomenon seems to have proved the Mormons were sincere about the traditional family, but that Evangelical leaders are mostly hucksters driven by greed, prejudice and resentment.